Table 2 Estimated total number of poverty cases, defined as condition-specific out-of-pocket (OOP) direct medical costs pushing households below the poverty line, for the base case scenario and for two sensitivity analyses ((1) 75 % utilization across all conditions and (2) key inputs including disease-specific cases, utilization, and OOP direct medical costs varying across income), and deaths incurred by each of 20 leading causes of mortality in Ethiopia. The share of poverty cases among all estimated cases and the ranking are also indicated. In brackets are presented the 95 % uncertainty ranges (URs) for the base case

Diarrhea

Count: 164,100 (95 % UR: 95,000–233,900)

Share: 46.7 % (95 % UR: 32.4–58.1 %)

Ranking: 1 (95 % UR: 1–1)

Count: 222,000

Share: 30.0 %

Ranking: 1

Count: 104,000

Share: 43.2 %

Ranking: 1

58,500

Lower respiratory infections

59,200 (35,800–98,400)

16.9 % (10.4–26.6 %)

2 (2–3)

165,500

22.4 %

2

38,000

15.8 %

2

77,000

Road injury

44,700 (24,200–74,800)

12.8 % (6.8–20.5 %)

3 (2–3)

66,800

9.0 %

3

32,000

13.3 %

3

17,800

Tuberculosis

13,600 (7400–23,100)

3.9 % (2.1–6.8 %)

4 (4–8)

16,300

2.2 %

11

8700

3.6 %

6

31,000

Ischemic heart disease

13,100 (8400–20,300)

3.7 % (2.2–6.2 %)

5 (4–7)

39,500

5.3 %

4

16,300

30.0 %

4

50,200

Asthma

12,400 (7200–20,600)

3.5 % (2.0–6.1 %)

6 (4–8)

33,700

4.6 %

6

7700

3.2 %

7

2600

Stroke

9900 (6300–16,000)

2.8 % (1.7–4.7 %)

7 (4–9)

29,900

4.0 %

7

11,300

4.7 %

5

53,800

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

7300 (4600–12,200)

2.1 % (1.2–3.7 %)

8 (5–10)

20,200

2.7 %

9

4700

2.0 %

8

8600

HIV

4,900 (2,500–8400)

1.4 % (0.7–2.5 %)

9 (8–13)

5400

0.7 %

16

3000

1.2 %

7

52,500

Whooping cough

4800 (2800–7700)

1.4 % (0.7–2.3 %)

10 (8–13)

13,000

1.8 %

14

3000

1.2 %

10

15,300

Malaria

4200 (2400–7200)

1.2 % (0.6–2.2 %)

11 (8–13)

13,000

1.8 %

13

2,600

1.1 %

12

18,400

Diabetes mellitus

3700 (2000–5900)

1.0 % (0.5–1.8 %)

12 (9–14)

10,600

1.4 %

15

3500

1.4 %

9

11,700

Preterm birth complications

2,400 (1,200–4,200)

0.7 % (0.3–1.3 %)

13 (10–16)

22,100

3.0 %

8

1500

0.6 %

13

17,300

Neonatal encephalopathy

1600 (1000–3000)

0.5 % (0.3–0.9 %)

14 (12–17)

38,700

2.7 %

5

1200

0.5 %

14

12,300

Meningitis

1500 (800–2700)

0.4 % (0.2–0.8 %)

15 (13–17)

4200

0.6 %

17

1000

0.4 %

15

15,300

Measles

1200 (700–2000)

0.3 % (0.2–0.6 %)

16 (14–17)

2800

0.4 %

19

700

0.3 %

16

14,400

Epilepsy

1100 (600–2100)

0.3 % (0.2–0.6 %)

17 (14–17)

17,300

2.3 %

10

700

0.3 %

17

3300

Cirrhosis

400 (200–600)

0.1 % (0.1–0.2 %)

18 (18–18)

13,700

1.8 %

12

500

0.2 %

18

12,300

Cervical cancer

<100 (0–100)

0.0 % (0.0–0.0 %)

19 (19–20)

3200

0.4 %

18

< 100

0.0 %

19

6500

Breast cancer

< 100 (0–100)

0.0 % (0.0–0.0 %)

20 (19–20)

2500

0.3 %

20

< 100

0.0 %

20

3600