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Table 2 Scenario results and percentage differences from baseline scenario in 2025

From: Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan

  1. Baseline 2A. Short-course regimen 2B. Short-course, improved outcomes 3. Decreased delays to detection 4. Improved MDR-TB treatment outcomes 5. Improved MDR-TB identification 6. Increased MDR-TB treatment availability
Total incidencea 77.2 71.1 69.4 65.6 73.9 80.2 73.3
% change −8.0% −10.2% −15.0% −4.4% +3.8% −5.1%
Total prevalenceb 105.7 83.6 79.0 89.6 97.7 111.8 99.5
% change −20.9% −25.2% −15.2% −7.5% +5.8% −5.8%
Total mortalitya 10.4 8.7 7.7 8.7 9.1 11.1 9.3
% change −16.6% −25.9% −16.6% −12.7% +7.3% −10.2%
MDR-TB incidencea 15.2 9.7 8.7 14.6 12.2 18.2 11.2
% change −36.0% −42.8% −4.3% −19.6% +19.8% −26.4%
MDR-TB prevalenceb 63.0 40.8 36.1 61.6 55.0 69.2 56.7
% change −35.2% −42.6% −2.2% −12.7% +9.9% −9.9%
MDR-TB mortalitya 3.0 1.7 1.0 2.8 1.9 3.8 1.9
% change −43.9% −67.2% −6.2% −38.2% +27.5% −37.1%
Proportion of incident cases MDR-TB 34.8 28.9 27.1 40.1 31.7 37.3 31.2
% change −16.9% −22.1% +15.1% −8.9% +7.1% −10.5%
XDR-TB incidencea 11.7 10.8 10.1 11.7 11.2 11.7 11.6
% change −7.2% −13.3% +0.5% −4.2% −0.1% −0.4%
XDR-TB prevalenceb 29.8 26.6 24.5 30.0 28.5 29.3 30.2
% change −10.8% −17.7% +0.5% −4.4% −1.6% +1.2%
XDR-TB mortalitya 4.0 3.6 3.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1
% change −10.5% 17.2% +0.5% −4.3% −1.6% +1.2%
Proportion of incident cases XDR-TB 15.1 15.2 14.6 17.9 15.1 14.6 15.9
% change +0.8% −3.5% +18.2% +0.1% −3.8% +5.0%
  1. aPer 100,000 population per year
  2. bPer 100,000 population
  3. MDR-TB Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, XDR-TB Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis