Table 2 Base-case probabilistic cost-effectiveness results: lifetime average costs and QALYs per woman

Costs

£179

£598

£824

(95% confidence interval)

(£137 to £242)

(£434 to £758)

(£566 to £1154)

 Incremental costs

–

£419

£646

(95% confidence interval)

(£255 to £578)

(£386 to £973)

 QALYs

14.290

14.357

14.297

(95% confidence interval)

(5.159 to 15.907)

(5.168 to 15.959)

(5.147 to 15.926)

 Incremental QALYs

–

0.047

0.007

(95% confidence interval)

(0.002 to 0.088)

(–0.042 to 0.049)

 ICER per QALY

–

£8864 vs no screening

Dominated by MMS

(95% confidence interval)

(£2600 to £51,576)

 Life years

24.660

24.803

24.729

(95% confidence interval)

(24.543 to 24.741)

(24.668 to 24.872)

(24.554 to 24.822)

 Incremental life years

–

0.142

0.069

(95% confidence interval)

(0.03 to 0.24)

(–0.07 to 0.17)

 Ovarian cancer deaths

3.19%

1.41%

2.35%

(95% confidence interval)

(1.98% to 5.17%)

(0.56% to 3.46%)

(1.06% to 5.21%)

 Incremental OC deaths

–

–1.77%

–0.83%

(95% confidence interval)

(–3.38% to –0.19%)

(–2.39% to 1.26%)

Model 11-year results

No screening

MMS

USS

 Costs

£58

£510

£612

(95% confidence interval)

(£49 to £67)

(£350 to £660)

(£399 to £886)

 QALYs

8.250

8.247

8.239

(95% confidence interval)

(2.823 to 9.163)

(2.820 to 9.162)

(2.801 to 9.157)

 Life years

11.093

11.093

11.093

(95% confidence interval)

(11.090 to 11.096)

(11.086 to 11.098)

(11.089 to 11.097)

 Cancers diagnosed

0.59%

0.65%

0.61%

(95% confidence interval)

(0.55% to 0.64%)

(0.58% to 0.72%)

(0.55% to 0.69%)

 Ovarian cancer deaths

0.34%

0.31%

0.33%

(95% confidence interval)

(0.29% to 0.41%)

(0.21% to 0.44%)

(0.26% to 0.41%)

Observed trial results

No screening

MMS

USS

 Cancers diagnosed

0.62%

0.67%

0.62%

(95% confidence interval)

(0.58% to 0.67%)

(0.60% to 0.74%)

(0.56% to 0.69%)

 Ovarian cancer deaths

0.34%

0.29%

0.30%

(95% confidence interval)

(0.31% to 0.38%)

(0.25% to 0.34%)

(0.26% to 0.36%)