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Table 2 True and false positive rates in cumulative subgroup analysis using data from simulated trials

From: Cumulative subgroup analysis to reduce waste in clinical research for individualised medicine

No. of trials sequentially included No. of total patients involved True positive False positive
X1 X2 X3 X4
1 800 9.8% 4.8% 5.4% 5.2%
2 1600 14.8% 4.7% 5.3% 4.5%
3 2400 19.7% 5.1% 5.5% 5.0%
4 3200 25.7% 5.1% 5.5% 5.3%
5 4000 30.7% 4.9% 5.4% 4.6%
6 4800 36.4% 5.0% 5.3% 4.9%
7 5600 41.3% 5.4% 5.5% 4.6%
8 6400 46.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7%
9 7200 50.7% 5.5% 5.4% 4.5%
10 8000 54.4% 5.2% 5.2% 4.9%
11 8800 58.3% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9%
12 9600 61.6% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5%
13 10,400 65.2% 5.2% 5.3% 4.7%
14 11,200 68.9% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9%
15 12,000 71.9% 5.3% 5.5% 4.9%
16 12,800 74.4% 5.5% 5.4% 4.6%
17 13,600 77.1% 5.7% 5.5% 4.5%
18 14,400 79.6% 5.7% 5.1% 4.8%
19 15,200 82.0% 5.9% 4.7% 4.7%
20 16,000 83.8% 5.7% 4.6% 4.7%
  1. Except for varying input values shown in the table, the following basic input parameters were used for other variables: No. of patients per arm = 400; OR = 0.7; event rate in the control arm = 0.3; heterogeneity variance = 0.01; ROR = 0.8; proportion of patients with X1, X2, X3 and X4 = 0.4. Positive rates were based on 5000 simulations