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Table 2 Model-estimated deviationsa between monthly numbers of pneumococcal meningitis (PM) cases in children under 5 years old, compared to baseline

From: Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis cases in France between 2001 and 2014: a time series analysis

Epidemiological Number of PM cases per month
Period PCV7 serotype P valueb Delta6 serotypec P value Non-vaccine serotype P value Total P value
Baselined 5.5 1.6 0.8 8.0
2003–2004 +0.2 (–0.26 to 0.67) 0.39 –0.1 (–0.76 to 0.56) 0.76 –1.2 (–1.74 to –0.65) <0.001 +1.3 (–0.02 to 2.70) 0.05
2004–2005 –1.2 (–1.69 to –0.75) <0.001 +0.3 (–0.36 to 0.97) 0.37 +0.8 (0.23 to 1.42) 0.007 +1.0 (–0.39 to 2.36) 0.16
2005–2006 –3.0 (–3.51 to –2.59) <0.001 +0.1 (–0.54 to 0.78) 0.72 +0.3 (–0.26 to 0.91) 0.28 –1.1 (–2.47 to 0.20) 0.09
2006–2007 –3.2 (–3.64 to 2.70) <0.001 +1.5 (0.84 to 2.16) <0.001 +0.3 (–0.22 to 0.93) 0.23 +0.2 (1.11 to 1.58) 0.73
2007–2008 –4.2 (–4.64 to –3.71) <0.001 +0.4 (–0.26 to 1.07) 0.23 +1.2 (0.61 to 1.77) <0.001 –1.0 (–2.38 to 0.32) 0.14
2008–2009 –5.1 (–5.56 to –4.56) <0.001 +1.8 (1.14 to 2.49) <0.001 +1.0 (0.42 to 1.65) <0.001 +1.7 (0.31 to 3.05) 0.016
2009–2010 –4.6 (–5.14 to –4.15) <0.001 +1.5 (0.82 to 2.19) <0.001 +2.0 (1.44 to 2.65) <0.001 +1.0 (–0.34 to 2.45) 0.13
2010–2011 –4.8 (–5.27 to –4.35) <0.001 +0.7 (0.01 to 1.34) 0.045 +3.3 (2.74 to 3.92) <0.001 –0.6 (–1.93 to 0.75) 0.38
2011–2012 –5.4 (–5.82 to –4.90) <0.001 +0.5 (–0.15 to 1.16) 0.13 +2.1 (1.56 to 2.71) <0.001 –1.6 (–2.92 to –0.26) 0.019
2012–2013 –4.7 (–5.24 to –4.21) <0.001 –0.3 (–1.04 to 0.33) 0.31 +3.9 (3.31 to 4.54) <0.001 –2.7 (–4.14 to –1.36) <0.001
2013–2014 –5.2 (–5.71 to –4.62) <0.001 –0.3 (–0.93 to 0.39) 0.42 +1.7 (1.09 to 2.37) <0.001 –3.5 (–4.81 to –2.13) <0.001
  1. aThe number of PM cases/month predicted by the model for a fixed population size without vaccination. Estimates were adjusted to flu-like syndrome frequency, for each 12-month period from 1 July to 30 June, followed by their 95% confidence interval
  2. bP values are for the comparison of each period’s value versus baseline
  3. cDelta6 refers to the six serotypes added to PCV7 to obtain PCV13
  4. dBaseline values are the numbers of expected PM cases per month