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Table 3 Model-estimated deviationsa between monthly numbers of pneumococcal meningitis (PM) cases in adults above 64 years old, compared to baseline

From: Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis cases in France between 2001 and 2014: a time series analysis

Epidemiological Number of PM cases per month
Period PCV7 serotype P valueb Delta6 serotypec P value Non-vaccine serotype P value Total P value
Baselined 3.7 1.3 2.0 6.7
2003–2004 –0.03 (–0.50 to 0.44) 0.89 +0.3 (–0.51 to 1.19) 0.43 +1.2 (0.34 to 2.03) 0.006 –1.2 (–2.60 to 0.18) 0.09
2004–2005 –0.2 (–0.75 to 0.26) 0.35 +0.5 (–0.35 to 1.41) 0.24 +1.8 (0.94 to 2.62) <0.001 +0.6 (–0.82 to 2.00) 0.41
2005–2006 –0.6 (–1.18 to –0.10) 0.021 +0.5 (–0.30 to 1.40) 0.20 +1.6 (0.73 to 2.44) <0.001 –0.4 (–1.79 to 1.01) 0.58
2006–2007 –0.1 (–0.68 to 0.40) 0.60 +1.3 (0.49 to 2.19) 0.002 +2.1 (1.23 to 2.93) <0.001 +1.5 (0.16 to 2.95) 0.03
2007–2008 –0.9 (–1.47 to –0.39) <0.001 +1.1 (0.28 to 2.00) 0.009 +2.4 (1.50 to 3.23) <0.001 +0.3 (–1.11 to 1.69) 0.68
2008–2009 –1.5 (–2.06 to –0.93) <0.001 +3.7 (2.83 to 4.55) <0.001 +3.3 (2.41 to 4.18) <0.001 +1.3 (–0.07 to 2.77) 0.06
2009–2010 –2.8 (–3.39 to –2.28) <0.001 +2.7 (1.81 to 3.56) <0.001 +3.1 (2.23 to 4.02) <0.001 +0.3 (–1.14 to 1.71) 0.69
2010–2011 –3.1 (–3.59 to –2.52) <0.001 +0.7 (–0.18 to 1.54) 0.12 +3.6 (2.74 to 4.45) <0.001 +0.6 (–0.66 to 6.44) 0.11
2011–2012 –2.2 (–2.78 to –1.73) <0.001 –0.4 (–1.26 to 0.45) 0.35 +4.5 (3.64 to 5.36) <0.001 +0.5 (–0.84 to 1.93) 0.43
2012–2013 –2.7 (–3.28 to –2.15) <0.001 –1.2 (–2.03 to –0.29) 0.009 +3.3 (2.42 to 4.20) <0.001 +0.5 (–0.92 to 1.94) 0.48
2013–2014 –3.1 (–3.70 to –2.47) <0.001 –1.1 (–1.96 to –0.25) 0.010 +2.8 (1.98 to 3.73) <0.001 –2.0 (–3.36 to –0.57) 0.006
  1. a The number of PM cases/month predicted by the model for a fixed population size without vaccination. Estimates were adjusted to flu-like syndrome frequency, for each 12-month period from 1 July to 30 June, followed by their 95% confidence interval
  2. b P values are for the comparison of each period’s value versus baseline
  3. c Delta6 refers to the six serotypes added to PCV7 to obtain PCV13
  4. d Baseline values are the numbers of expected PM cases per month