Table 3 Key study characteristics and results

 Beneciuk et al. 2012 [43]

USA

Outpatient physiotherapy clinics

At 6 months:

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability (ODI score ≥ 30%)

73 (55, 75.3%)

^aPain 0.61 (0.45–0.76)

^aDisability 0.75 (0.60–0.90)

 Field & Newell, 2012 [44]

UK

Chiropractic clinics

At 90 days:

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

477 (151, 31.7%)

^aPain 0.597 (0.499–0.694)

 Hill et al. 2008 [46]

UK

General practice clinics

6 months:

RMDQ score ≥ 7

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability ≥ 30% RMDQ

177 at follow-up. (N at baseline not specified

^aPain 0.70 (0.62–0.88)

^aDisability 0.81 (0.75–0.88)

 Kongsted et al. 2015 [38]

Denmark

Chiropractic clinics

3 months:

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability ≥ 30% RMDQ

754 (604, 80.1%)

^aPain 0.56 (0.49–0.60)

^aDisability 0.67 (0.62–0.73)

 Newell et al. 2014 [45]

UK

Chiropractic clinics

At 90 days:

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

284 (192, 67.6%)

^aPain 0.59 (0.48–0.69)

 Gabel et al. 2011 [39]

Australia

Physiotherapy outpatient clinics

At 6 months:

Functional status ≥ 10%

Problem severity > 1

Absenteeism > 0 days

Long term absenteeism > 28 days

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability (SFI score ≥ 30%)

66 (58, 87.9%)

(OMPSQ - Original)

Functional status 0.88 (0.78–0.99)

Problem severity 0.85 (0.72–0.97)

Absenteeism 0.86 (0.76–0.96)

Long-term absenteeism 0.85 (0.73–0.96)

^aPain 0.84 (0.71–0.97)

^aDisability 0.80 (0.67–0.92)

 Grotle et al. 2006 [25]

Norway

General practitioner/Chiropractor/Physiotherapy clinics

(27% recruited through advertisement)

At 6 & 12 months:

Pain NRS score ≥ 3

Disability (RMDQ score > 4)

Sick leave (> 30 days)

123 (112, 91.1%)

Pain 0.62 (0.51–0.73)

Disability 0.68 (0.56–0.80)

Sick leave 0.80 (0.66–0.93)

 Heneweer et al. 2007 [66]

Netherlands

Physiotherapy clinics

Not recovered at 12 weeks

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability QBPDS ≥ 30%)

66 (56, 84.8%)

Non-recovery 0.64 (0.5–0.79)

^aPain 0.64 (0.50–0.78)

^aDisability 0.67 (0.54–0.8)

 Jellema et al. 2007 [52]

Netherlands

General practice clinics

12 months: score of ‘slightly improved’ or worse at two or more follow-up time points

314 (296, 94.3%)

Non-recovery 0.61 (0.54–0.67)

 Law et al. 2013 [37]

China

Physiotherapy clinics in public hospitals

12 months post discharge: Failure to return to work

Prolonged sick leave (> 30 days)

241 (220, 91.3%)

Return to work 0.69 (0.62–0.76)

Prolonged sick leave 0.71 (0.64–0.78)

 Nonclercq et al. 2012 [42]

Belgium

Emergency facility or outpatient clinic

At 6 months:

Pain index score > 16

ODI ≥ 20%

Functional index < 45

Work absence > 30 days

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability ≥ 30% ODI

91 (73, 80%)

Pain 0.73 (no confidence intervals)

Functional index 0.79 (no confidence intervals)

Absenteeism 0.83 (standard error 0.71)

Disability 0.75 (no confidence intervals)

^aPain 0.70 (standard error 0.66)

^aDisability 0.72 (standard error 0.86)

 Schmidt et al. 2016 [48]

Germany

General practice clinics

6 months:

Disability ≥ 4/11 (dichotomised mean response to three GCPS disability items)

181 (112, 62%)

Disability (OMPSQ scale sum score) 0.79 (0.67–0.90)

Disability (OMPSQ item sum score) 0.77 (0.66–0.87)

 Hazard et al. 1996 [49]

USA

Vermont Department of Labour and Industry database

Not returned to work at 3 months

166 (163, 98%)

Return to work 0.92 (no confidence interval or standard error reported)

 Hazard et al. 1997 [50]

USA

Vermont Department of Labour and Industry database

Not returned to work at 3 months

304 (268, 88.2%)

Return to work 0.78 (no confidence interval or standard error reported)

 Truchon et al. 2012 [51]

Canada

Quebec Workers Compensation Board database

12 months:

Absenteeism > 182 cumulative days

535 (310, 58%)

Absenteeism 0.73 (no confidence intervals or standard error reported)

 Turner et al. 2013 [61]

USA

Primary care

4 months

Pain grades 3 & 4

^aPain NRS ≥ 3

458 (425, 92.8%)

Pain grades 3 & 4 0.67 (0.59–0.72)

^aPain 0.67 (0.59–0.72)

 Shaw et al. 2009 [40]

USA

Occupational health clinics

3 months:

Pain ≥ 5

Disability ≥ 50%

^aPain NRS score ≥ 3

^aDisability ≥ 30% RMDQ

568 (519, 91.4%)

^aPain 0.61 (0.56–0.66)

^aDisability 0.66 (0.62–0.70)

 Williams et al. 2014 [41]

Australia

General practice clinics, Pharmacists or physiotherapy clinics

3 months:

No sustained recovery (0 or 1/10 on a NRS for 7 consecutive days)

^aPain NRS ≥ 3

956 (937, 82%)

Sustained recovery 0.60 (0.56–0.64)

^aPain 0.62 (0.60–0.65)