Fig. 4

Model projections for annual lives saved by RNTCP since 1997. The shaded region, showing a 95% credible interval for the epidemic trajectory, is constructed as described in Fig. 3. The upper region shows overall cumulative lives saved each year, while the lower region aims to control for reducing transmission over time, to show lives saved directly through improved treatment outcomes alone. Broadly, the vertical separation between these regions can be interpreted as the lives saved through indirect effects (reducing transmission)