Table 1 Scenario specifications in risk factor exposure projection according to the WHO Global Monitoring Framework
Scenario | Scenario specification |
|---|---|
Natural trend | Age and sex-specific risk factor exposures were projected assuming the annual change rate remained similar to that between 1990 and 2013. |
Smoking | Age and sex-specific prevalences of smoking in 2030 are reduced relatively by 30% from the 2013 level. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
Physical inactivity | Age and sex-specific prevalences of physical inactivity in 2030 are 10% relatively less than in 2013. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
High BMI | Age and sex-specific distributions of BMI in 2030 are the same as in 2013. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
Total cholesterol | Age and sex-specific distributions of total cholesterol are shifted in 2030 so that the prevalence of raised cholesterol (defined as ≥5.0 mmol/L) is reduced relatively by 20%. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
Fasting glucose | Age and sex-specific distributions of fasting glucose in 2030 are the same as in 2013. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
Systolic blood pressure (SBP) | Age and sex-specific distributions of SBP are shifted in 2030 so that the prevalence of raised SBP (defined as ≥140 mm Hg) is reduced relatively by 25% from the 2013 level. All other risk factors follow the natural trends. |
All targets are achieved in 2030 | All targets described above are achieved in 2030. |