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Fig. 5 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 5

From: Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020

Fig. 5

Patterns of elimination timelines of lymphatic filariasis (LF) by calendar years in sub-Saharan Africa. a An example of the effects of staggered annual MDA implementation in cohorts of implementation units (IUs) across a country on LF elimination trajectories, using data and model simulations for Kenya. The modeled decline in the overall mean microfilariae (mf) prevalence as a result of LF intervention is shown, where each cohort had a different MDA start year: 2001, 2003, 2011, and 2016, respectively. The elimination year for each cohort is shown by an open circle on the x-axis of the respective subplot. b Patterns in timelines to LF elimination based on annual MDAs provided to IUs either randomly or in a phased sequential manner starting with provision of treatments to the highest prevalence IUs first. The vertical bars show fractions of IUs in a country achieving LF elimination by calendar years. The results for sequential coverage of IUs are shown in orange (i.e., IUs with higher baseline endemicity receiving MDA earlier than lower endemicity IUs), and those for random coverage of IUs are shown in blue. The results for the random selection of IUs are more pessimistic than those for the sequential approach. Data on the years and number of IUs implementing annual MDA and drug coverages are from the WHO LF PCT databank. Future LF interventions were simulated for the current MDA and VC coverages for a given country

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