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Table 2 Annual cardiometabolic deaths potentially prevented by a 10% or 30% price change for selected foods in the USa

From: The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

Dietary factors Disease outcomeb 10% price changec 30% price changec
   No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI) No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)
Overall diet CHD 12,236 (11,320–13,230) 3.4 (3.1–3.6) 33,293 (30,887–35,798) 9.2 (8.5–9.9)
Hypertensive HD 45 (34–60) 0.1 (0.1–0.2) 134 (102–179) 0.4 (0.3–0.5)
Stroke 6942 (6456–7430) 5.5 (5.1–5.9) 18726 (17,485–19,955) 14.9 (13.9–15.8)
Diabetes 2274 (2063–2626) 3.4 (3.1–4.0) 6287 (5756–7050) 9.5 (8.7–10.6)
CMD, total 23174 (22,024–24,595) 3.4 (3.2–3.6) 63268 (60,425–66,719) 9.2 (8.8–9.7)
Fruit CHD 2213 (1852–2643) 0.6 (0.5–0.7) 6143 (5144–7316) 1.7 (1.4–2.0)
Stroke 3038 (2726–3397) 2.4 (2.2–2.7) 8308 (7478–9256) 6.6 (5.9–7.4)
CMD, total 5265 (4771–5817) 0.8 (0.7–0.8) 14475 (13125–15,974) 2.1 (1.9–2.3)
Vegetables CHD 2873 (2443–3359) 0.8 (0.7–0.9) 8223 (7011–9578) 2.3 (1.9–2.6)
Stroke 3423 (3044–3818) 2.7 (2.4–3.0) 9554 (8497–10,585) 7.6 (6.7–8.4)
CMD, total 6294 (5722–6901) 0.9 (0.8–1.0) 17749 (16,176–19,458) 2.6 (2.4–2.8)
Nuts/seeds CHD 3148 (2710–3599) 0.9 (0.7–1.0) 8214 (7116–9326) 2.3 (2.0–2.6)
Diabetes 269 (227–316) 0.4 (0.3–0.5) 701 (592–822) 1.1 (0.9–1.2)
CMD, total 3413 (2976–3863) 0.5 (0.4–0.6) 8912 (7788–10,049) 1.3 (1.1–1.5)
Whole grains CHD 587 (457–720) 0.2 (0.1–0.2) 1741 (1356–2137) 0.5 (0.4–0.6)
Stroke 514 (453–579) 0.4 (0.4–0.5) 1522 (1343–1712) 1.2 (1.1–1.4)
Diabetes 425 (372–480) 0.6 (0.6–0.7) 1252 (1099–1413) 1.9 (1.7–2.1)
CMD, total 1527 (1376–1683) 0.2 (0.2–0.2) 4518 (4072–4977) 0.7 (0.6–0.7)
Processed meats CHD 1700 (1315–2206) 0.5 (0.4–0.6) 5048 (3906–6493) 1.4 (1.1–1.8)
Diabetes 477 (385–580) 0.7 (0.6–0.9) 1408 (1141–1703) 2.1 (1.7–2.6)
CMD, total 2175 (1777–2689) 0.3 (0.3–0.4) 6447 (5286–7944) 0.9 (0.8–1.2)
Red meats, unprocessed Diabetes 140 (106–176) 0.2 (0.2–0.3) 419 (316–524) 0.6 (0.5–0.8)
Sugar sweetened beverages CHD 3544 (2921–4302) 1.0 (0.8–1.2) 10091 (8354–12,027) 2.8 (2.3–3.3)
Hypertensive HD 45 (34–60) 0.1 (0.1–0.2) 134 (102–179) 0.4 (0.3–0.5)
Stroke 67 (60–76) 0.1 (0.0–0.1) 201 (178–226) 0.2 (0.1–0.2)
Diabetes 986 (804–1349) 1.5 (1.2–2.0) 2729 (2267–3424) 4.1 (3.4–5.2)
CMD, total 4647 (3993–5680) 0.7 (0.6–0.8) 13169 (11,428–15,366) 1.9 (1.7–2.2)
  1. aEstimated using nationally representative data from the US adult population in 2012 based on a comparative risk assessment framework
  2. bCVD corresponds to the sum of CHD, hypertensive heart disease, and stroke; CMD corresponds to the sum of CVD and diabetes. Values may not precisely add up due to rounding
  3. cEstimates based on a low SES gradient (18.2% differential effect comparing those with lower than high school versus college education)
  4. CMD cardiometabolic diseases, CHD coronary heart disease, HD heart disease, UI uncertainty interval