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Table 3 Annual cardiometabolic deaths potentially prevented by a 10% and 30% price change in 7 selected foods in the US, by educational attainmenta

From: The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

Disease outcomeb Price change scenario < High school (n = 60,742,522) High school (n = 119,506,708)d College (n = 28,482,268)
  % price change SES gradientc No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI) No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI) No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)
CHD 10% Low 2657 (2325–3008) 3.0 (2.6–3.4) 8054 (7255–8908) 3.7 (3.3–4.1) 1486 (1323–1728) 2.8 (2.5–3.2)
  High 3120 (2732–3531) 3.5 (3.1–3.9) 8054 (7255–8908) 3.7 (3.3–4.1) 1268 (1127–1478) 2.4 (2.1–2.8)
30% Low 7380 (6492–8243) 8.2 (7.3–9.2) 21816 (19755–23985) 9.9 (9.0–10.9) 3996 (3563–4560) 7.5 (6.7–8.5)
  High 8546 (7534–9532) 9.5 (8.4–10.6) 21816 (19755–23985) 9.9 (9.0–10.9) 3463 (3090–3960) 6.5 (5.8–7.4)
Hypertensive HD 10% Low 12 (8–17) 0.1 (0.1–0.2) 29 (19–43) 0.1 (0.1–0.2) 3 (2–5) 0.1 (0.0–0.1)
  High 14 (10–21) 0.2 (0.1–0.3) 29 (19–43) 0.1 (0.1–0.2) 3 (2–4) 0.1 (0.0–0.1)
30% Low 35 (25–52) 0.4 (0.3–0.7) 87 (57–127) 0.4 (0.3–0.6) 10 (7–16) 0.2 (0.1–0.3)
  High 42 (29–61) 0.5 (0.4–0.8) 87 (57–127) 0.4 (0.3–0.6) 9 (6–13) 0.2 (0.1–0.3)
Stroke, total 10% Low 1588 (1415–1767) 5.0 (4.5–5.6) 4307 (3871–4768) 5.8 (5.2–6.4) 1041 (939–1148) 5.4 (4.9–6.0)
  High 1864 (1662–2073) 5.9 (5.2–6.5) 4307 (3871–4768) 5.8 (5.2–6.4) 888 (801–981) 4.6 (4.2–5.1)
30% Low 4347 (3890–4803) 13.7 (12.3–15.1) 11633 (10518–12778) 15.5 (14–17.1) 2740 (2488–3002) 14.2 (12.9–15.6)
  High 5007 (4487–5524) 15.8 (14.1–17.4) 11633 (10518–12778) 15.5 (14–17.1) 2388 (2165–2620) 12.4 (11.2–13.6)
Diabetes 10% Low 585 (498–697) 3.2 (2.7–3.8) 1488 (1297–1756) 3.7 (3.2–4.4) 197 (171–294) 2.4 (2.1–3.6)
  High 687 (586–815) 3.8 (3.2–4.5) 1488 (1297–1756) 3.7 (3.2–4.4) 167 (146–255) 2.0 (1.8–3.1)
30% Low 1631 (1410–1899) 9.0 (7.8–10.5) 4104 (3613–4700) 10.2 (9–11.7) 557 (489–705) 6.7 (5.9–8.5)
  High 1895 (1643–2202) 10.5 (9.1–12.2) 4104 (3613–4700) 10.2 (9–11.7) 476 (418–618) 5.8 (5.1–7.5)
CMD, total 10% Low 5286 (4847–5735) 3.1 (2.9–3.4) 14954 (13897–16010) 3.6 (3.3–3.8) 2934 (2714–3557) 2.9 (2.7–3.5)
  High 6210 (5697–6735) 3.7 (3.4–4.0) 14954 (13897–16010) 3.6 (3.3–3.8) 2501 (2310–3074) 2.5 (2.3–3.0)
30% Low 14672 (13487–15843) 8.7 (8.0–9.3) 40732 (38042–43415) 9.8 (9.1–10.4) 7906 (7357–8853) 7.7 (7.2–8.7)
  High 16986 (15632–18331) 10 (9.2–10.8) 40732 (38042–43415) 9.8 (9.1–10.4) 6847 (6372–7751) 6.7 (6.2–7.6)
  1. aEstimated using nationally representative data from the US adult population in 2012 based on a comparative risk assessment framework (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, processed meat, unprocessed red meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages)
  2. bCVD corresponds to the sum of CHD, hypertensive heart disease and stroke, and CMD to the sum of CVD and diabetes. Values may not precisely sum due to rounding
  3. cWe evaluated two potential gradients by SES: a ‘low gradient’ scenario modeled based on a meta-analysis of price elasticity of food demand [23], reporting 18.2% greater responsiveness in the low vs. high SES groups, and a ‘high gradient’ scenario modeled after the differential responsiveness to SSBs taxation observed 1 year after the implementation of a 10% excise tax in Mexico [11], where a 65.4% greater responsiveness (low versus high SES) was noticed
  4. dThose with average educational attainment are assumed to experience the average price-responsiveness, and thus estimates in this group are not influenced by a change in the gradient of responsiveness comparing lower vs. higher SES
  5. CMD cardiometabolic diseases, CHD coronary heart disease, HD heart disease, SES socioeconomic status, UI uncertainty interval