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Table 2 Relative impact of projected population scenarios on the predicted cumulative number of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) cases (in the period 2004–2060) by vaccination scenario

From: Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study

  Varicella cases (differences in %a) HZ cases (differences in %a)
Projected population 1b Projected population 2c Projected population 1b Projected population 2c
No vaccination –38.31% –37.12% +16.45% +21.59%
Varicella vaccination –31.90% –28.76% +16.12% +21.35%
Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccination –31.91% –28.77% +16.05% +21.26%
Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccination –31.95% –28.82% +15.39% +20.60%
  1. aCompared to the stationary population model
  2. bWithout short-term immigration
  3. cWith short-term immigration