Table 1 Baseline population – key parameter values

Normoglycaemia (NGT)

Any of fasting blood glucose, post-load glucose or glycated haemoglobin

Fasting glucose: <5.6 mmol/L

Post-load glucose: <7.0 mmol/L

HbA1c: <6.0 mmol/mol

£773

[Gamma distribution, SE: £102.63]

0.768

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.10]

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG)

Fasting blood glucose: blood glucose test after a period of fasting (typically overnight)

Fasting glucose: 5.6-6.9 mmol/L

Isolated IFG: 12.76%

IFG + IGT: 1.49%

IFG + HbA1c: 6.61%

IFG + IGT + HbA1c: 1.06%

3.55%

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.006]

£869

[Gamma distribution, SE: 104.56]

0.759

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.11]

Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)

Post-load glucose: blood glucose test 2 hours after consuming a drink containing 75 g of sugar

2 hour post-load glucose: 7.0-11.1 mmol/L

Isolated IGT: 7.50%

IGT + HbA1c: 3.31%

4.54%

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.004]

£946

[Gamma distribution, SE: 101.52]

0.746

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.10]

HbA1c

Glycated haemoglobin: blood test which estimates blood glucose levels over previous 2-3 months

6.0-6.4 mmol/mol

Isolated HbA1c: 7.53%

3.56%

[Beta distribution, SE:0.017]

£869

[Gamma distribution, SE: 104.56]

0.759

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.11]

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)

Any of fasting blood glucose, post-load glucose or glycated haemoglobin

Fasting glucose: >6.9 mmol/l

2 hour post-load glucose: >11.1 mmol/L

£1,179-£2,939

Increasing linearly from Year 1-15

[Gamma distribution, SE: 270.00]

0.738

[Beta distribution, SE: 0.12]