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Table 1 Baseline population – key parameter values

From: Economic evaluation of type 2 diabetes prevention programmes: Markov model of low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia

Health state Diagnostic test Diagnostic criteria Prevalence Annual incidence of T2DM Annual cost of care (£, 2015) Utility (QALYs)
Normoglycaemia (NGT) Any of fasting blood glucose, post-load glucose or glycated haemoglobin Fasting glucose: <5.6 mmol/L Post-load glucose: <7.0 mmol/L HbA1c: <6.0 mmol/mol    £773 [Gamma distribution, SE: £102.63] 0.768 [Beta distribution, SE: 0.10]
Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) Fasting blood glucose: blood glucose test after a period of fasting (typically overnight) Fasting glucose: 5.6-6.9 mmol/L Isolated IFG: 12.76% IFG + IGT: 1.49% IFG + HbA1c: 6.61% IFG + IGT + HbA1c: 1.06% 3.55% [Beta distribution, SE: 0.006] £869 [Gamma distribution, SE: 104.56] 0.759 [Beta distribution, SE: 0.11]
Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) Post-load glucose: blood glucose test 2 hours after consuming a drink containing 75 g of sugar 2 hour post-load glucose: 7.0-11.1 mmol/L Isolated IGT: 7.50% IGT + HbA1c: 3.31% 4.54% [Beta distribution, SE: 0.004] £946 [Gamma distribution, SE: 101.52] 0.746 [Beta distribution, SE: 0.10]
HbA1c Glycated haemoglobin: blood test which estimates blood glucose levels over previous 2-3 months 6.0-6.4 mmol/mol Isolated HbA1c: 7.53% 3.56% [Beta distribution, SE:0.017] £869 [Gamma distribution, SE: 104.56] 0.759 [Beta distribution, SE: 0.11]
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) Any of fasting blood glucose, post-load glucose or glycated haemoglobin Fasting glucose: >6.9 mmol/l 2 hour post-load glucose: >11.1 mmol/L    £1,179-£2,939 Increasing linearly from Year 1-15 [Gamma distribution, SE: 270.00] 0.738 [Beta distribution, SE: 0.12]
  1. Parametric form and standard error of distribution used in probabilistic sensitivity analysis in italics
  2. Sources: Diagnostic criteria for HbA1c and IGT [26] and for IFG [27], prevalence [28], annual incidence type 2 Diabetes [10], costs [36,37,38,39], utilities [40]