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Table 1 Analyses examining trajectories of pain in arthritis and cancer using latent class growth analyses (LCGAs) or Growth mixture models (GMMs), the trajectories identified and clinical and socio-demographic predictors

From: General and disease-specific pain trajectories as predictors of social and political outcomes in arthritis and cancer

Paper Sample Trajectories Predictors
Arthritis
 Collins, Katz, Dervan Losina [5] OAI cohort (osteoarthritis): LCGA with up to 4th order polynomial 5 stable trajectories: severe pain (6%), high (17%) and low (32%) moderate pain, mild pain (35%), no pain (11%) (WOMAC) Multivariate MLR, ref. no pain: female sex, depression, graded OA severity (moderate/severe +), obesity, non-white race (severe +), pre-college education (high mod./severe +)
 Barnabe et al. [9] CATCH cohort (early rheumatoid arthritis): LCGA with cubic polynomial 5 trajectories differing in baseline and speed of remission: high to medium (10%), low (19%) or remission (20%), medium to low (30%) or remission (21%) (DAS28) Univariate analyses, Bonferroni corrected: age 50+, non-white, non-college education, unemployment, < $50K income, comorbidities, (non-remission trajectories +, High > Med/Low ++), symptom duration (mod. at baseline/High > Med+), DAS28, tender/swollen joints, ESR, CRP, physician, patient and pain score (High +), HAQ (high baseline and High > Med +)
 Bastick et al. [6] CHECK cohort (assumed early OA hip respondents only): LCGA with up to quadratic polynomial 4 trajectories: mild pain (42%), moderate decrease (17%), moderate progression (24%), severe pain (16%) (NRS) Univariable and multivariable MLR, final model: pre-university education, use of pain transformation to cope, pain with internal hip rotation (progression/severe +), WOMAC physical function (all but mild +)
 Nicholls, Thomas, van der Windt, Croft and Peat [10] CAS-K (knee OA risk group), replicated in OAI (OA cohort): LCGA (polynomial info. reported in appendix) 5 in CAS-K: mild non-progressive (35%), progressive (28%), moderate (22%), improving (12%), severe non-improving (3%). 4 in OAI: mild, non-progressive (41%), moderate A (24%), B (19%) and C (11%), severe, non-improving (5%) (WOMAC pain) Baseline CAS-K: differences reported on age, gender, BMI, IMD, employment, manual job, self-reported health, HADS, widespread pain, knee pain, WOMAC function, radiography, health care use inc. knee replacement
 Holla et al. [7] CHECK cohort (early symptomatic OA, knee OA only): LCGA (no info. on polynomials reported) 3 mostly stable trajectories differing in baseline and follow-up pain: good (47%), moderate (37%) and poor outcomes (16%) (WOMAC) Uni/multivariate analyses, ref. good outcome: age, knee flexion range (poor –), BMI (mod. +), NRS, hip pain, comorbidity (mod./poor +), SF-36 vitality (mod./poor –), bony tenderness, osteophytosis, PCI resting (poor +)
 Verkleij et al. [8] Previously reported RCT (hip OA study): LCGA, linear model only 5 trajectories; three stable, two changing: mild (31%) or moderate pain (14%), alwaysin pain (14%) and regular (22%) or rapidly (19%) progressing (VAS) Univariate MLR, ref. mild: low education, (mod./always +), BMI, morning hip stiffness, hip flexion (all bar mild +), KL, hip pain > 3 years (always/rapid +), generalised OA (always/regular prog. +), hip internal rotation (always +), back pain (all bar mild and reg prog.), trochanteric pain (all bar mild and rapid prog. +)
 Bastick et al. [11] CHECK cohort (early symptomatic OA, knee only): LCGA up to cubic polynomials 6 trajectories: constant mild (26%) or severe pain (10%), severe (5%) or moderate progression (24%), major (3%) or moderate regression (29%) (NRS) Uni/multivariate MLR, ref. constant mild: BMI (mod. prog. and severe +), education (all bar ref. and severe –), comorbidity (severe cons. and prog. +), WOMAC physical (all bar sev., prog. and ref. +), knee joint space tenderness (prog. and mod. reg. +), painful knee flexion (maj. reg. –)
 Norton et al. [13] ERAS cohort (early (< 2 years) RA), baseline, 6 months and annual to 10 years follow-up: GMM, MAR assumed 4 trajectories: low (6%), moderate (28%) and high stable (20%), and moderate increasing (46%) (HAQ) Univariate analyses: age, female, educational/economic disadvantage, unemployment, DAS/VAS/Larsen, comorbidity, mortality (track severity)
 Wesseling et al. [4] CHECK cohort (symptomatic knee OA), 5 years follow-up: LCGA, quadratic added 3 trajectories: marginal pain (31%), mild pain (42%) and moderate pain (26%) (with progression) (NRS, last week) Univariate and multivariate LRs: BMI ≤ 25, subtertiary education, hip pain, comorbidities, PCI worrying and resting (marginal –)
 Norton et al. [12] ERAS and NOAR cohorts (early RA and early inflammatory polyarthritis): LCGM, polynomials added Both cohorts showed 4 J-shaped trajectories differing in baseline severity, low (21%), moderate (32%, 33%), high (30%, 26%) and severe (16%, 20%) (HAQ) Age, % female gender, lower SES, DAS28 increase alongside severity
Cancer
 Miaskowski et al. [14] Sampled from breast care centres, post surgery: GMM, quadratic added, 0–6 months follow-up (NRS at shoulder/arm) 3 trajectories: no pain (42%), mild pain (24%), moderate pain (35%). All differ at baseline and remain stable Age, white ethnicity (no pain +), education (mild pain longer time in educ.), income mild > mod. at >  $100K), BMI, depression, trait anxiety (mod. +), QoL (tracks pain severity)
 Miaskowski et al. [2] Sampled from breast care centres, post surgery: GMM, quadratic added, 0–6 months follow-up (NRS at breast) 4 trajectories: no pain (32%), mild (43%), moderate (13%) and severe pain (12%). Moderate group shows progression, severe shows slight pain regression Age (no +), trait anxiety, sleep disturbance, QoL (no –), non-white ethnicity, household income (severe –), BMI, comorbidities, QoL (severe +), CES-D depression (mod./sev +)
  1. Percentages are rounded; as such, not all add up to 100%
  2. Abbreviations: BMI body mass index, CAS-K Knee Clinical Assessment Study, CATCH Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort, CES-D Center for Epidemiologic Depression Scale, CRP C-reactive protein, DAS Disease Activity Score, ERAS Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study, ESR erythrocyte sedimentation rate, HADS Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HAQ Health Assessment Questionnaire, IMD invasive meningococcal disease, KL Kellgren-Lawrence, MAR missing at random, MLR multiple linear regression, NOAR Norfolk Arthritis Register, NRS numeric rating scale, OAI Osteoarthritis Initiative, PCI Pain Coping Inventory, QoL quality of life, RA rheumatoid arthritis, SES socio-economic status, SF-36 Short Form 36 Health Survey, VAS visual analog scale, WOMAC Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index