Parameter | Base case values | Standard deviations | Prior Distribution | 95% CI Posterior distribution | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Epidemiological parameters | |||||
Proportion of HZ cases developing PHN^{c} | 0.049 (by age) | 0.0023 (by age) | Beta | – | [2] |
Hosp. rate for natural varicella (NV) per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 2.35/2.36 (by age) | 0.61/0.62 (by age) | Beta | – | Estimate^{a} |
Breakthrough varicella (BV) vs. NV hosp. rate | 0.25 | 0.05 | Beta | [0.16–0.35] | [58, 59] |
Hosp. rate for HZ per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 13.60/13.12 (by age) | 4.49/4.63 (by age) | Beta | – | Estimate^{a} |
Hosp. rate for PHN per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 41.55/40.77 (by age) | 9.53/10.39 (by age) | Beta | – | Estimate^{a} |
Case fatality rate for NV (per 1000 hospitalised) | 4.01 (by age) | 2.98 (by age) | Beta | – | Estimate^{b} |
BV vs. NV case fatality rate | 0.005 | 0.0022 | Beta | [0.002–0.01] | [59, 60] |
HZ-PHN case fatality rate (per 1000 hospitalised) | 12.70 (by age) | 5.43 (by age) | Beta | – | Estimate^{b} |
No. GP consultations per NV case | |||||
< 14 years | 2 | 0.2 | Gamma | [1.63–2.43] | [59] |
≥ 15 years | 1 | 0.2 | Gamma | [0.64–1.43] | [59] |
No. GP consultations per BV case | 0.5 | 0.05 | Gamma | [0.41–0.60] | [59] |
Quality of life measures | |||||
Overall weighted health state index (EQ-5D_{index}) | 0.84 (by age) | 0.21 (by age) | Beta | [61] | |
Weighted health state index varicella | |||||
< 14 years | 0.81 | 0.031 | Beta | [0.76–0.86] | [31] |
≥ 15 years | 0.73 | 0.025 | Beta | [0.68–0.78] | [62] |
Prob. severe NV cases | 0.65 | 0.0063 | Beta | [0.64–0.66] | [63] |
Prob. severe BV cases | 0.25 | 0.011 | Beta | [0.23–0.27] | [63] |
Reduction in QALY loss Mild vs. severe varicella cases | 0.25 | 0.10 | Beta | [0.08–0.47] | [48] |
QALY loss HZ | |||||
20 years | 0.022 | 0.0018 | Beta | [0.019–0.026] | [48] |
40 years | 0.031 | 0.0030 | Beta | [0.026–0.037] | [48] |
60 years | 0.064 | 0.0082 | Beta | [0.049–0.081] | [48] |
80 years | 0.19 | 0.030 | Beta | [0.14–0.25] | [48] |