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# Table 1 Epidemiological and quality of life (QALY) parameters of the economic model. We report the base case values and the standard deviations, taken either from the literature or from administrative data, the shapes of the prior distribution, the 95% CI from the posterior distribution of the parameters, and the source of the base case values

Parameter | Base case values | Standard deviations | Prior Distribution | 95% CIÂ Posterior distribution | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Epidemiological parameters | |||||

â€ƒProportion of HZ cases developing PHN | 0.049 (by age) | 0.0023 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | [2] |

â€ƒHosp. rate for natural varicella (NV) per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 2.35/2.36 (by age) | 0.61/0.62 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | Estimate |

â€ƒBreakthrough varicella (BV) vs. NV hosp. rate | 0.25 | 0.05 | Beta | [0.16â€“0.35] | |

â€ƒHosp. rate for HZ per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 13.60/13.12 (by age) | 4.49/4.63 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | Estimate |

â€ƒHosp. rate for PHN per model TI/PI (per 1000 cases) | 41.55/40.77 (by age) | 9.53/10.39 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | Estimate |

â€ƒCase fatality rate for NV (per 1000 hospitalised) | 4.01 (by age) | 2.98 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | Estimate |

â€ƒBV vs. NV case fatality rate | 0.005 | 0.0022 | Beta | [0.002â€“0.01] | |

â€ƒHZ-PHN case fatality rate (per 1000 hospitalised) | 12.70 (by age) | 5.43 (by age) | Beta | â€“ | Estimate |

â€ƒNo. GP consultations per NV case | |||||

â€ƒâ€ƒ<â€‰14Â years | 2 | 0.2 | Gamma | [1.63â€“2.43] | [59] |

â€ƒâ€ƒâ‰¥â€‰15Â years | 1 | 0.2 | Gamma | [0.64â€“1.43] | [59] |

â€ƒNo. GP consultations per BV case | 0.5 | 0.05 | Gamma | [0.41â€“0.60] | [59] |

Quality of life measures | |||||

â€ƒOverall weighted health state index (EQ-5D | 0.84 (by age) | 0.21 (by age) | Beta | Â | [61] |

â€ƒWeighted health state index varicella | |||||

â€ƒâ€ƒ<â€‰14Â years | 0.81 | 0.031 | Beta | [0.76â€“0.86] | [31] |

â€ƒâ€ƒâ‰¥â€‰15Â years | 0.73 | 0.025 | Beta | [0.68â€“0.78] | [62] |

â€ƒProb. severe NV cases | 0.65 | 0.0063 | Beta | [0.64â€“0.66] | [63] |

â€ƒProb. severe BV cases | 0.25 | 0.011 | Beta | [0.23â€“0.27] | [63] |

â€ƒReduction in QALY loss â€ƒMild vs. severe varicella cases | 0.25 | 0.10 | Beta | [0.08â€“0.47] | [48] |

â€ƒQALY loss HZ | |||||

â€ƒâ€ƒ20Â years | 0.022 | 0.0018 | Beta | [0.019â€“0.026] | [48] |

â€ƒâ€ƒ40Â years | 0.031 | 0.0030 | Beta | [0.026â€“0.037] | [48] |

â€ƒâ€ƒ60Â years | 0.064 | 0.0082 | Beta | [0.049â€“0.081] | [48] |

â€ƒâ€ƒ80Â years | 0.19 | 0.030 | Beta | [0.14â€“0.25] | [48] |