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Table 7 One-way sensitivity analysis results

From: Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pay-for-performance in primary care in the UK

Variable

Base-case value

Sensitivity analysis range

ICER at low value

ICER at high value

Adjusted QOF mortality benefit (for those aged > 40 years with CVD)

58.93

−130.57 to 12.81

QOF dominated

£20,044/QALY

CVD prevalence, males (aged 45–64 years, aged 65–74 years)

14.6%, 28.5%

±20%

£49,266/QALY

£49,485/QALY

CVD prevalence, females (aged 45–64 years, aged 65–74 years)

8.4%, 22.5%

±20%

£49,302/QALY

£49,414/QALY

CVD mortality multiplier (male, female)

1.6, 2.1

±20%

£47,246/QALY

£51,249/QALY

CVD utility

0.796

±20%

£43,516/QALY

£64,805/QALY

Acute CVD event costs (i.e. costs within first year of CVD event)

£10,871

±20%

£49,850/QALY

£48,874/QALY

Chronic CVD event costs (i.e. annual costs for all years after first year)

£3282

±20%

£50,350/QALY

£48,375/QALY

Average NHS costs by age

Age-based table

£0 to +100%

£46,270/QALY

£52,455/QALY

Discount rate

3.5%

0–5%

£38,337/QALY

£54,587/QALY

  1. Base-case ICER of £49,362/QALY; base-case values for each variable are reported in Table 1 in the main text
  2. CVD cardiovascular disease, ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, NHS National Health Service, QALY quality-adjusted life year, QOF Quality and Outcomes Framework