Table 1 Parameter main analysis values

Overall population

Simulate from lognormal distribution based on 2010 Lusaka, Zambia census

Grid dimensions

6 × 6

Level of correlation, percentage of hotspots in grid

Low, 20% (on average)

Percentage of new infections (times zone population divided by 365 days)

0.66%

Percentage of new HIV-negative arrivals (times zone population divided 365 days)

3.4%

Days until return to unobserved, uninfected pool

45

Initial observed HIV⁺/HIV^– (priors for TS)

Beta(1, 1)

Initial observed HIV⁺/HIV^– (priors for ICAR/BYM during learning period)

Beta(1, 1)

Intercept (priors for ICAR/BYM)

Normal(0, 2.85)

Priors for ICAR and exchangeable random effects

Inverse-Gamma(3, 2)

Days of testing

180

Tests per day

25