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Table 1 Summary of the evidence for each population movement model tested on the Zika data. The prior and posterior probabilities were estimated using the approximate Bayesian computation – sequential Monte Carlo procedure (see Additional file 1 for further details)

From: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Model of population movements Gravity (simple) – M1 Gravity (exponential terms included) – M2 Radiation – M3 Flight data – M4 Combination of flight and radiation – M5
Prior probability (π(my)) 0.232 0.246 0.224 0.052 0.092
Posterior probability (P(my|x)) 0.001 0.344 0.001 0.001 0.001
Bayes factor 0.003 1 0.002 0.001 0.001
Evidence for alternative model (and against model my) Very weak evidence of fitting data Model has best evidence of fitting data Very weak evidence of fitting data Very weak evidence of fitting data Very weak evidence of fitting data