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Table 2 Reported and estimated statistics for ZIKV in Latin America and the Caribbean. Reported timing of the peak of ZIKV cases; the model estimate of the peak in ZIKV cases; the estimated number of days each year where R0 > 1; the average value of R0 throughout the year, the estimated reporting rate of ZIKV cases and the estimated number of ZIKV cases in 2018

From: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Country Peak in data Peak in model Days where R0(t)> 1a Average R0(t) during yeara Percentage of infections that result in a case (reporting rate)a Projected cases in 2018a Bayesian posterior check
Antigua & Barbuda Sep-16 Dec-16 267 (265–269) 1.41 (1.36–1.46) 0.8 (0.6–1.5) 0 (0–1) < 0.01
Argentina Mar-17 Jul-16 122 (121–123) 1.07 (1.04–1.11) 0 (0–0) 6 (2–15) > 0.99
Aruba Feb-17 Feb-16 365 (365–365) 2.41 (2.33–2.49) 1.3 (0.8–2.7) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
Bahamas Sep-16 Jan-16 254 (254–255) 2.41 (2.32–2.48) 0.1 (0.1–0.4) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
Barbados Jan-16 Feb-16 269 (267–271) 2.13 (2.05–2.19) 0.4 (0.2–0.8) 0 (0–0) 0.22
Belize Feb-17 Dec-16 238 (236–239) 1.36 (1.31–1.4) 0.7 (0.5–1.3) 3 (0–13) > 0.99
Bolivia Feb-17 May-16 256 (254–259) 1.99 (1.92–2.06) 0.1 (0.1–0.3) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
Brazil Feb-16 Apr-47 241 (239–243) 1.99 (1.92–2.05) 0.7 (0.5–1) 143 (29–360) 0.43
Colombia Dec-16 Jun-16 314 (311–315) 1.94 (1.87–2.01) 1.7 (1.3–2.5) 86 (5–294) < 0.01
Costa Rica Sep-16 Jul-16 116 (97–139) 0.76 (0.74–0.79) 29.6 (12.5–55.8) 28 (14–48) > 0.99
Cuba Jul-15 Jan-16 260 (259–261) 2.51 (2.43–2.6) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Curacao Nov-16 Mar-16 365 (365–365) 2.22 (2.14–2.29) 4.7 (2.9–10) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
Dominican Republic May-16 Jun-16 329 (325–333) 2.21 (2.13–2.28) 0.3 (0.2–0.5) 0 (0–0) 0.06
Ecuador Jun-16 May-16 130 (130–131) 1.86 (1.8–1.92) 0.2 (0.1–0.5) 0 (0–1) > 0.99
El Salvador Dec-16 Nov-16 207 (205–208) 1.36 (1.31–1.41) 1.6 (1.2–2.8) 3 (0–9) < 0.01
French Guiana Apr-16 Aug-16 230 (226–232) 1.16 (1.12–1.2) 36.9 (22.1–97.3) 694 (148–1773) 0.1
Grenada Jun-16 Jul-16 331 (327–333) 1.96 (1.9–2.03) 0.6 (0.4–1.1) 0 (0–0) 0.42
Guadeloupe Jun-16 Jun-16 303 (301–305) 2.08 (2.01–2.15) 9.3 (6–16.9) 0 (0–0) 0.25
Guatemala Jan-16 Oct-16 208 (206–208) 1.59 (1.54–1.65) 0.5 (0.4–0.9) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Guyana Jan-16 Aug-16 311 (307–313) 1.73 (1.67–1.79) 0.4 (0.3–0.7) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Haiti Jan-16 Jun-16 295 (293–296) 2.3 (2.22–2.38) 0.2 (0.1–0.3) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Honduras Jan-16 Aug-16 222 (221–223) 1.85 (1.79–1.91) 3.7 (2.4–7.2) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Jamaica Jun-16 Aug-16 269 (268–271) 1.86 (1.8–1.92) 1.3 (0.8–2.5) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Martinique May-16 Aug-16 323 (320–325) 1.9 (1.83–1.96) 11.3 (7.3–20.9) 0 (0–0) < 0.01
Mexico Sep-16 Jan-31 141 (139–142) 1.35 (1.3–1.39) 0.1 (0.1–0.1) 5 (2–9) 0.99
Nicaragua Jul-16 Aug-16 216 (215–218) 1.82 (1.75–1.88) 0.6 (0.4–1.1) 0 (0–0) 0.13
Panama Jan-17 Sep-16 278 (277–279) 1.69 (1.63–1.75) 0.5 (0.3–0.9) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
Paraguay Mar-16 Mar-16 295 (293–297) 2.3 (2.22–2.37) 0 (0–0.1) 0 (0–0) 0.41
Peru Mar-17 Jun-16 168 (168–169) 1.6 (1.55–1.65) 0.2 (0.1–0.3) 5 (0–17) > 0.99
Puerto Rico Aug-16 Jun-16 257 (256–258) 2.28 (2.2–2.36) 2.2 (1.5–3.7) 0 (0–0) > 0.99
St. Vincent & Grenadines Jul-16 Aug-16 322 (313–331) 1.87 (1.8–1.93) 0.7 (0.5–1.3) 0 (0–0) 0.36
Suriname Dec-16 Aug-16 277 (274–280) 1.6 (1.55–1.66) 2.4 (1.5–4.9) 0 (0–1) < 0.01
Trinidad & Tobago Aug-16 Sep-16 267 (265–269) 1.8 (1.73–1.85) 0.5 (0.3–0.9) 0 (0–0) 0.24
US Virgin Islands Jul-16 Jan-17 251 (247–255) 1.34 (1.29–1.38) 21.7 (14–40.6) 12 (0–45) < 0.01
Venezuela Jan-16 Jun-16 271 (268–276) 2.01 (1.94–2.08) 0.8 (0.6–1.1) 1 (0–2) < 0.01
  1. aEstimated median (95% credible intervals)