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Table 2 Reported and estimated statistics for ZIKV in Latin America and the Caribbean. Reported timing of the peak of ZIKV cases; the model estimate of the peak in ZIKV cases; the estimated number of days each year where R0 > 1; the average value of R0 throughout the year, the estimated reporting rate of ZIKV cases and the estimated number of ZIKV cases in 2018

From: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Country

Peak in data

Peak in model

Days where R0(t)> 1a

Average R0(t) during yeara

Percentage of infections that result in a case (reporting rate)a

Projected cases in 2018a

Bayesian posterior check

Antigua & Barbuda

Sep-16

Dec-16

267 (265–269)

1.41 (1.36–1.46)

0.8 (0.6–1.5)

0 (0–1)

< 0.01

Argentina

Mar-17

Jul-16

122 (121–123)

1.07 (1.04–1.11)

0 (0–0)

6 (2–15)

> 0.99

Aruba

Feb-17

Feb-16

365 (365–365)

2.41 (2.33–2.49)

1.3 (0.8–2.7)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

Bahamas

Sep-16

Jan-16

254 (254–255)

2.41 (2.32–2.48)

0.1 (0.1–0.4)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

Barbados

Jan-16

Feb-16

269 (267–271)

2.13 (2.05–2.19)

0.4 (0.2–0.8)

0 (0–0)

0.22

Belize

Feb-17

Dec-16

238 (236–239)

1.36 (1.31–1.4)

0.7 (0.5–1.3)

3 (0–13)

> 0.99

Bolivia

Feb-17

May-16

256 (254–259)

1.99 (1.92–2.06)

0.1 (0.1–0.3)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

Brazil

Feb-16

Apr-47

241 (239–243)

1.99 (1.92–2.05)

0.7 (0.5–1)

143 (29–360)

0.43

Colombia

Dec-16

Jun-16

314 (311–315)

1.94 (1.87–2.01)

1.7 (1.3–2.5)

86 (5–294)

< 0.01

Costa Rica

Sep-16

Jul-16

116 (97–139)

0.76 (0.74–0.79)

29.6 (12.5–55.8)

28 (14–48)

> 0.99

Cuba

Jul-15

Jan-16

260 (259–261)

2.51 (2.43–2.6)

0 (0–0)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Curacao

Nov-16

Mar-16

365 (365–365)

2.22 (2.14–2.29)

4.7 (2.9–10)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

Dominican Republic

May-16

Jun-16

329 (325–333)

2.21 (2.13–2.28)

0.3 (0.2–0.5)

0 (0–0)

0.06

Ecuador

Jun-16

May-16

130 (130–131)

1.86 (1.8–1.92)

0.2 (0.1–0.5)

0 (0–1)

> 0.99

El Salvador

Dec-16

Nov-16

207 (205–208)

1.36 (1.31–1.41)

1.6 (1.2–2.8)

3 (0–9)

< 0.01

French Guiana

Apr-16

Aug-16

230 (226–232)

1.16 (1.12–1.2)

36.9 (22.1–97.3)

694 (148–1773)

0.1

Grenada

Jun-16

Jul-16

331 (327–333)

1.96 (1.9–2.03)

0.6 (0.4–1.1)

0 (0–0)

0.42

Guadeloupe

Jun-16

Jun-16

303 (301–305)

2.08 (2.01–2.15)

9.3 (6–16.9)

0 (0–0)

0.25

Guatemala

Jan-16

Oct-16

208 (206–208)

1.59 (1.54–1.65)

0.5 (0.4–0.9)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Guyana

Jan-16

Aug-16

311 (307–313)

1.73 (1.67–1.79)

0.4 (0.3–0.7)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Haiti

Jan-16

Jun-16

295 (293–296)

2.3 (2.22–2.38)

0.2 (0.1–0.3)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Honduras

Jan-16

Aug-16

222 (221–223)

1.85 (1.79–1.91)

3.7 (2.4–7.2)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Jamaica

Jun-16

Aug-16

269 (268–271)

1.86 (1.8–1.92)

1.3 (0.8–2.5)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Martinique

May-16

Aug-16

323 (320–325)

1.9 (1.83–1.96)

11.3 (7.3–20.9)

0 (0–0)

< 0.01

Mexico

Sep-16

Jan-31

141 (139–142)

1.35 (1.3–1.39)

0.1 (0.1–0.1)

5 (2–9)

0.99

Nicaragua

Jul-16

Aug-16

216 (215–218)

1.82 (1.75–1.88)

0.6 (0.4–1.1)

0 (0–0)

0.13

Panama

Jan-17

Sep-16

278 (277–279)

1.69 (1.63–1.75)

0.5 (0.3–0.9)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

Paraguay

Mar-16

Mar-16

295 (293–297)

2.3 (2.22–2.37)

0 (0–0.1)

0 (0–0)

0.41

Peru

Mar-17

Jun-16

168 (168–169)

1.6 (1.55–1.65)

0.2 (0.1–0.3)

5 (0–17)

> 0.99

Puerto Rico

Aug-16

Jun-16

257 (256–258)

2.28 (2.2–2.36)

2.2 (1.5–3.7)

0 (0–0)

> 0.99

St. Vincent & Grenadines

Jul-16

Aug-16

322 (313–331)

1.87 (1.8–1.93)

0.7 (0.5–1.3)

0 (0–0)

0.36

Suriname

Dec-16

Aug-16

277 (274–280)

1.6 (1.55–1.66)

2.4 (1.5–4.9)

0 (0–1)

< 0.01

Trinidad & Tobago

Aug-16

Sep-16

267 (265–269)

1.8 (1.73–1.85)

0.5 (0.3–0.9)

0 (0–0)

0.24

US Virgin Islands

Jul-16

Jan-17

251 (247–255)

1.34 (1.29–1.38)

21.7 (14–40.6)

12 (0–45)

< 0.01

Venezuela

Jan-16

Jun-16

271 (268–276)

2.01 (1.94–2.08)

0.8 (0.6–1.1)

1 (0–2)

< 0.01

  1. aEstimated median (95% credible intervals)