From: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
Country | Peak in data | Peak in model | Days where R0(t)> 1a | Average R0(t) during yeara | Percentage of infections that result in a case (reporting rate)a | Projected cases in 2018a | Bayesian posterior check |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Antigua & Barbuda | Sep-16 | Dec-16 | 267 (265–269) | 1.41 (1.36–1.46) | 0.8 (0.6–1.5) | 0 (0–1) | < 0.01 |
Argentina | Mar-17 | Jul-16 | 122 (121–123) | 1.07 (1.04–1.11) | 0 (0–0) | 6 (2–15) | > 0.99 |
Aruba | Feb-17 | Feb-16 | 365 (365–365) | 2.41 (2.33–2.49) | 1.3 (0.8–2.7) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
Bahamas | Sep-16 | Jan-16 | 254 (254–255) | 2.41 (2.32–2.48) | 0.1 (0.1–0.4) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
Barbados | Jan-16 | Feb-16 | 269 (267–271) | 2.13 (2.05–2.19) | 0.4 (0.2–0.8) | 0 (0–0) | 0.22 |
Belize | Feb-17 | Dec-16 | 238 (236–239) | 1.36 (1.31–1.4) | 0.7 (0.5–1.3) | 3 (0–13) | > 0.99 |
Bolivia | Feb-17 | May-16 | 256 (254–259) | 1.99 (1.92–2.06) | 0.1 (0.1–0.3) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
Brazil | Feb-16 | Apr-47 | 241 (239–243) | 1.99 (1.92–2.05) | 0.7 (0.5–1) | 143 (29–360) | 0.43 |
Colombia | Dec-16 | Jun-16 | 314 (311–315) | 1.94 (1.87–2.01) | 1.7 (1.3–2.5) | 86 (5–294) | < 0.01 |
Costa Rica | Sep-16 | Jul-16 | 116 (97–139) | 0.76 (0.74–0.79) | 29.6 (12.5–55.8) | 28 (14–48) | > 0.99 |
Cuba | Jul-15 | Jan-16 | 260 (259–261) | 2.51 (2.43–2.6) | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Curacao | Nov-16 | Mar-16 | 365 (365–365) | 2.22 (2.14–2.29) | 4.7 (2.9–10) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
Dominican Republic | May-16 | Jun-16 | 329 (325–333) | 2.21 (2.13–2.28) | 0.3 (0.2–0.5) | 0 (0–0) | 0.06 |
Ecuador | Jun-16 | May-16 | 130 (130–131) | 1.86 (1.8–1.92) | 0.2 (0.1–0.5) | 0 (0–1) | > 0.99 |
El Salvador | Dec-16 | Nov-16 | 207 (205–208) | 1.36 (1.31–1.41) | 1.6 (1.2–2.8) | 3 (0–9) | < 0.01 |
French Guiana | Apr-16 | Aug-16 | 230 (226–232) | 1.16 (1.12–1.2) | 36.9 (22.1–97.3) | 694 (148–1773) | 0.1 |
Grenada | Jun-16 | Jul-16 | 331 (327–333) | 1.96 (1.9–2.03) | 0.6 (0.4–1.1) | 0 (0–0) | 0.42 |
Guadeloupe | Jun-16 | Jun-16 | 303 (301–305) | 2.08 (2.01–2.15) | 9.3 (6–16.9) | 0 (0–0) | 0.25 |
Guatemala | Jan-16 | Oct-16 | 208 (206–208) | 1.59 (1.54–1.65) | 0.5 (0.4–0.9) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Guyana | Jan-16 | Aug-16 | 311 (307–313) | 1.73 (1.67–1.79) | 0.4 (0.3–0.7) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Haiti | Jan-16 | Jun-16 | 295 (293–296) | 2.3 (2.22–2.38) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Honduras | Jan-16 | Aug-16 | 222 (221–223) | 1.85 (1.79–1.91) | 3.7 (2.4–7.2) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Jamaica | Jun-16 | Aug-16 | 269 (268–271) | 1.86 (1.8–1.92) | 1.3 (0.8–2.5) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Martinique | May-16 | Aug-16 | 323 (320–325) | 1.9 (1.83–1.96) | 11.3 (7.3–20.9) | 0 (0–0) | < 0.01 |
Mexico | Sep-16 | Jan-31 | 141 (139–142) | 1.35 (1.3–1.39) | 0.1 (0.1–0.1) | 5 (2–9) | 0.99 |
Nicaragua | Jul-16 | Aug-16 | 216 (215–218) | 1.82 (1.75–1.88) | 0.6 (0.4–1.1) | 0 (0–0) | 0.13 |
Panama | Jan-17 | Sep-16 | 278 (277–279) | 1.69 (1.63–1.75) | 0.5 (0.3–0.9) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
Paraguay | Mar-16 | Mar-16 | 295 (293–297) | 2.3 (2.22–2.37) | 0 (0–0.1) | 0 (0–0) | 0.41 |
Peru | Mar-17 | Jun-16 | 168 (168–169) | 1.6 (1.55–1.65) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 5 (0–17) | > 0.99 |
Puerto Rico | Aug-16 | Jun-16 | 257 (256–258) | 2.28 (2.2–2.36) | 2.2 (1.5–3.7) | 0 (0–0) | > 0.99 |
St. Vincent & Grenadines | Jul-16 | Aug-16 | 322 (313–331) | 1.87 (1.8–1.93) | 0.7 (0.5–1.3) | 0 (0–0) | 0.36 |
Suriname | Dec-16 | Aug-16 | 277 (274–280) | 1.6 (1.55–1.66) | 2.4 (1.5–4.9) | 0 (0–1) | < 0.01 |
Trinidad & Tobago | Aug-16 | Sep-16 | 267 (265–269) | 1.8 (1.73–1.85) | 0.5 (0.3–0.9) | 0 (0–0) | 0.24 |
US Virgin Islands | Jul-16 | Jan-17 | 251 (247–255) | 1.34 (1.29–1.38) | 21.7 (14–40.6) | 12 (0–45) | < 0.01 |
Venezuela | Jan-16 | Jun-16 | 271 (268–276) | 2.01 (1.94–2.08) | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 1 (0–2) | < 0.01 |