Fig. 2

The cumulative risk of local ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US. The cumulative risk of local ZIKV transmission at different spatial resolutions is evaluated through the full course of the simulated 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic. a The cumulative risk map of local ZIKV transmission for each county in the contiguous US. The color scale indicates for any given county the probability of experiencing at least one ZIKV outbreak with more than 20 infections (details in Additional file 1). b High spatial resolution estimates (0.025° × 0.025°) of the cumulative risk of local ZIKV transmission through the full course of the simulated 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic. c The complementary cumulative distribution function of the local ZIKV transmission risk for all 0.025° × 0.025°cells (on a log-log scale). The heavy tail feature of the distribution reflects strong spatial heterogeneity in terms of local ZIKV transmission risk. d The total population in the counties of the US with different risk levels of local ZIKV transmission and their percentage with respect to the total population in the contiguous US