Table 1 Model inputs of the analysis. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the parameter inputs were simultaneously varied within the lower and upper estimates according to the distribution shown. In the deterministic sensitivity analysis, the parameter inputs were varied one-by-one between lower and upper inputs, while the “scenario” column shows inputs based on other plausible assumptions or sources

 Cohort size

Statistics Netherlands [29]

  50 years

  60 years

  70 years

  80 years

 Background mortality

Age-specific

Statistics Netherlands [28]

 HZ incidence per 100,000 person-years

NIVEL [30]/incidence adjusted for immunocompetent population using Schroder [4]

  50–59 years

Beta

  60–69 years

Beta

  70–79 years

Beta

  ≥ 80 years

Beta

 False positive HZ diagnoses (%)

Beta

Van Hoek [31]/assuming no false positives

 HZ hospitalization incidence per 100,000 person-years

Dutch Hospital Data [32]/incidence adjusted for the immunocompetent population using Hobbelen [49]

  50–59 years

Beta

  60–69 years

Beta

  70–79 years

Beta

 ≥ 80 years

Beta

 HZ 1-day hospital admission incidence per 100,000 person-years

Dutch Hospital Data [32]/incidence adjusted for the immunocompetent population using Hobbelen [49]

  50–59 years

Beta

  60–69 years

Beta

  70–79 years

Beta

  ≥ 80 years

Beta

 HZ mortality incidence per million person-years

Statistics Netherlands [34]/incidence adjusted for the immunocompetent population using Hobbelen [49]

  50–59 years

Beta

  60–69 years

Beta

  70–79 years

Beta

  80–89 years

Beta

  ≥ 90 years

Beta

 Misclassification HZ as underlying cause of death (%)

Beta

Mahamud [35]/assuming no misclassification

 QALY loss per HZ episode

Van Wijck [6]/utilities Van Hoek/QALY loss per HZ episode Van Hoek [31]

  50–59 years

^a

  ≥ 60 years

^a

 QALY loss per HZ death

Age-specific

Statistics Netherlands [28], Szende [36]

 QALY loss grade 3 adverse event per dose

Excluded/QALY loss for grade 3 adverse events (see Additional file 1)

  HZ/su

  ZVL

  GP visit, medication, specialist visit

Based on multiple sources (see Additional file 1)

   50–59 years

^a

   ≥ 60 years

^a

  Hospital admission

   50–59 years

^a

   60–69 years

^a

   70–79 years

^a

   ≥ 80 years

^a

  One-day hospital admission

Hakkaart-van Roijen [38]

  Healthcare costs in gained life years per averted HZ death

Age-specific

Statistics Netherlands [28], Van Baal [40]/excluding costs in gained life years

  Vaccine administration

SNPG [41]

 Patient costs

  OTC medication per HZ episode

Based on multiple sources (see Additional file 1)

   50–59 years

^a

   ≥ 60 years

^a

  Travel costs GP visit, medication, specialist care per HZ episode

Based on multiple sources (see Additional file 1)

   50–59 years

^a

   ≥ 60 years

^a

  Travel costs hospital per HZ hospital visit/hospitalization

  Travel costs per vaccination

 Productivity losses

  HZ episode

Based on multiple sources (see Additional file 1)

   50–59 years

^a

   60–69 years

^a

   ≥ 70 years

  HZ death

Friction period of 84 working days [27]

   50–59 years

   60–69 years

   ≥ 70 years

 Vaccine uptake (%)

Assumption based on Eilers [42]

 Adherence to the second dose of HZ/su (%)

Assumption

 Efficacy HZ/su over time (linear function)

Function fitted using data from Cunningham [20], Lal [19] and Curran [47]

  Intercept

   50–69 years

Normal

   ≥ 70 years

Normal

  Slope^b

Beta

 Efficacy ZVL over time (one-minus-exponential function)^d

Additional efficacy against PHN /post-licensure effectiveness against HZ

Function fitted using data from Oxman [11], Schmader [46] and Morrison [12]/see Additional file 1

  Intercept

Normal

  Slope

Beta

  Risk ratio of efficacy by age

Estimated using Rohan [45] and Schmader [44]/see Additional file 1

   50–59 years

   60–64 years

   65–69 years

   70–74 years

   75–79 years

   80–84 years

   ≥ 85 years