Estimates | Reference | |
---|---|---|
Probabilities | Probability (%)* | Â |
 •Probability of diagnosing LTBI | 25 | Assumption |
 •Probability of completing LTBI treatment among those who start it | 70.8 | [69] |
 •Probability of reactivation of longstanding LTBI to TB disease (non-smokers) | 0.05/year | |
 •Probability of rapid progression following TB infection (non-smokers)** | 4.5/year for 2 years | Dynamic model# |
 •Probability of diagnosing active disease | 90 | Assumption |
 •Probability of spontaneous resolution of untreated TB disease | 25 | [16] |
 •Probability of relapse following spontaneously resolved TB | 2.5 | |
 •Probability of dying from untreated TB | 19/year | |
 •Probability of relapse after treated TB disease in first year | 1.5 | [76] |
 •Protective immunity from previous TB disease | 55 | Dynamic model# |
QALYs for LTBI and active TB | Value (range) | Â |
 •Utility score for individual with active disease (treated) | 0.85 (0.70–0.90) | [40] |
 •Utility score for individual with active disease (untreated) | 0.68 (0.65–0.72) | [39] |
 •Utility score for individual with latent infection, during treatment | 0.97 (0.95–1.00) | [40] |
 •Utility score for individual with latent infection (untreated) | 1 | Assumption†|