Fig. 6

Yearly estimated probabilities of achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for HBV incidence (HBsAg) and HBeAg+ prevalence targets based on particular combinations of interventions and local HIV prevalence levels. A total of 1000 stochastic simulations are run independently for each set of particular interventions (coloured legend, subplot A2), with each using a random parameter sample from the posteriors shown in Additional file 2: Figure S1. Interventions start in year 1995. For every year post-intervention start, the proportion of simulations that have achieved the SDGs is recorded and taken to be the probability. A1 Probability of reaching HBV incidence (HBsAg) SDG in time (goal is set to a reduction of 90%). A2 Probability of reaching HBeAg+ prevalence target in time (goal is set to 1/1000 individuals). B1, B2 Same as subplots A1, A2 but addressing sensitivity to HIV prevalence levels in the population for a particular intervention (green, ωn = 0.9, ζ = 0.9, catch-up 0% (WHO)). Solid line is the same as in subplots A1, A2 (named HIV prevalence at baseline). Other lines present results assuming zero HIV prevalence (full line with points) or higher prevalences (dotted, dashed, line with squares). On all four panels, the dashed horizontal lines mark 0.5 and 0.975 probability of achieving SDGs and the grey shaded area marks the time period before 2030. In the interventions, ωn is routine vaccination of neonates, ζ the PMTCT effort, ωa routine vaccination of + 6 years of age, and catch-up a one-off event of vaccination in some age groups or general population