Fig. 1

Mean municipal mortality rates from ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) under four ESF scenarios (2010–2030). ACSC mortality expressed per 100,000 inhabitants; the four ESF scenarios are (from highest to lowest ACSC mortality rates in 2030) as follows: ESF contraction and termination of Mais Médicos (scenario 3) (red line), ESF contraction (scenario 2) (blue line), static ESF coverage (scenario 1) (grey line), and UHC (scenario 4) (green line). ESF Estratégia Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy)