Table 1 Mean values and standard deviation of independent municipal-level variables for the years 2015, 2020, and 2030
| Â | Variables | 2015 | 2020 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Static ESF coverage (scenario 1) | ESF coverage | 84.7% (22.2%) | 80.4% (23.5%) | 80.4% (23.5%) |
Contracting ESF coverage (scenario 2) | ESF coverage | 84.7% (22.2%) | 66.5% (20.0%) | 37.8% (13.9%) |
Contracting ESF coverage and Mais Médicos termination (scenario 3) | ESF coverage | 84.7% (22.2%) | 37.0% (30.0%) | 16.0% (18.6%) |
Universal Health Coverage (scenario 4) | ESF coverage | 84.7% (22.2%) | 95.6% (4.7%) | 99.9% (0.002%) |
All scenarios | BFP municipal coverage | 33.5% (22.1%) | 37.9% (29.1%) | 29.7% (25.3%) |
Poverty rate | 13.8% (15.3%) | 18.4% (21.5%) | 12.0% (17.4%) | |
Log of illiteracy rate | − 2.37 (0.79) | − 2.98 (1.06) | − 3.38 (1.27) | |
Urbanisation rate | 68.4% (22.2%) | 71.5% (22.4%) | 75.8% (23.1%) | |
Public hospital beds | 0.13 (0.21) | 0.12 (0.29) | 0.13 (0.25) | |
Private hospital beds | 0.04 (0.10) | 0.05 (0.11) | 0.05 (0.12) | |
Log of private healthcare insurance | − 5.62 (1.62) | − 5.52 (1.66) | − 5.46 (1.73) | |
Log of GDP per capita | − 4.70 (0.71) | − 4.54 (1.02) | −  4.48 (1.46) |