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Table 1 Mean values and standard deviation of independent municipal-level variables for the years 2015, 2020, and 2030

From: Mortality associated with alternative primary healthcare policies: a nationwide microsimulation modelling study in Brazil

  Variables 2015 2020 2030
Static ESF coverage (scenario 1) ESF coverage 84.7% (22.2%) 80.4% (23.5%) 80.4% (23.5%)
Contracting ESF coverage (scenario 2) ESF coverage 84.7% (22.2%) 66.5% (20.0%) 37.8% (13.9%)
Contracting ESF coverage and Mais Médicos termination (scenario 3) ESF coverage 84.7% (22.2%) 37.0% (30.0%) 16.0% (18.6%)
Universal Health Coverage (scenario 4) ESF coverage 84.7% (22.2%) 95.6% (4.7%) 99.9% (0.002%)
All scenarios BFP municipal coverage 33.5% (22.1%) 37.9% (29.1%) 29.7% (25.3%)
Poverty rate 13.8% (15.3%) 18.4% (21.5%) 12.0% (17.4%)
Log of illiteracy rate − 2.37 (0.79) − 2.98 (1.06) − 3.38 (1.27)
Urbanisation rate 68.4% (22.2%) 71.5% (22.4%) 75.8% (23.1%)
Public hospital beds 0.13 (0.21) 0.12 (0.29) 0.13 (0.25)
Private hospital beds 0.04 (0.10) 0.05 (0.11) 0.05 (0.12)
Log of private healthcare insurance − 5.62 (1.62) − 5.52 (1.66) − 5.46 (1.73)
Log of GDP per capita − 4.70 (0.71) − 4.54 (1.02) −  4.48 (1.46)
  1. Mean values reported and standard deviations shown in parentheses. ESF coverage, BFP coverage, poverty rate, and urbanisation rate expressed as percentages. Private healthcare insurance and GDP per capita are log-transformed. Illiteracy rate is the illiteracy rate of those aged 25 years and over and is log-transformed. GDP is log-transformed. Public and private hospital beds are expressed per 1000 municipal inhabitants
  2. BFP Bolsa Família Programme, ESF Estratégia Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy), GDP gross domestic product