Mortality associated with alternative primary healthcare policies: a nationwide microsimulation modelling study in Brazil

Table 2 Ratios of ACSC mortality rates under ESF scenarios compared to constant ESF coverage in 2020 and 2030

	2020	CI	2030	CI
	Ratio of ACSC mortality rates	CI	Ratio of ACSC mortality rates	CI
Static ESF coverage (scenario 1)	1 (Ref)		1 (Ref)
Contracting ESF coverage (scenario 2)	1.021	1.006–1.036	1.058	1.042–1.074
Contracting ESF coverage and Mais Médicos termination (scenario 3)	1.044	1.029–1.059	1.086	1.071–1.102
Universal Health Coverage (scenario 4)	0.989	0.974–1.003	0.977	0.963–0.992

CI credible intervals, ESF Estratégia Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy), ACSC ambulatory care-sensitive condition

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