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Table 1 CVD incidence and baseline characteristics of the entire study population

From: The uncertainty with using risk prediction models for individual decision making: an exemplar cohort study examining the prediction of cardiovascular disease in English primary care

 

CPRD female N = 1,965,078

CPRD male N = 1,890,582

Outcome variables

 Incident CVD cases

86,547

107,051

 Person years

13,801,919

12,977,235

 Rate per 1000 person-years

6.27

8.24

Demographics

 Age

43.07 (15.94)

41.84 (14.57)

 Ethnicity

  

  Recorded

42.07%

38.21%

  White/not recorded

94.12%

94.48%

  Indian

1.14%

1.19%

  Pakistani

0.45%

0.49%

  Bangladeshi

0.14%

0.19%

  Other Asian

0.84%

0.78%

  Black

1.73%

1.52%

  Chinese

0.33%

0.23%

  Other

1.27%

1.12%

Test data

 BMI

25.60 (5.60)

26.12 (4.54)

 Cholesterol/HDL ratio

3.72 (1.20)

4.48 (1.40)

 SBP

123.91 (18.28)

130.03 (16.48)

 SBP variability

9.47 (5.98)

10.13 (6.80)

 Smoking status

Never = 56.04%, Ex = 16.97%, Current = 26.99%

Never = 46.63%, Ex = 17.48%, Current = 35.99%

Medical history

 Atrial fibrillation

0.44%

0.57%

 Atypical antipsychotic medication use

0.30%

0.33%

 Chronic kidney disease

  

  Stage 3/4/5

0.45%

0.32%

  Stage 4/5

0.12%

0.15%

 Corticosteroid use

0.48%

0.30%

 Erectile dysfunction

NA

1.45%

 Family history of CVD

15.08%

11.02%

 HIV/AIDS

0.06%

0.09%

 Migraine

7.27%

2.94%

 Rheumatoid arthritis

0.69%

0.26%

 Severe mental illness

8.63%

4.59%

 Systemic lupus erythematosus

0.10%

0.01%

 Treated hypertension

6.18%

4.50%

 Type 1 diabetes

0.21%

0.28%

 Type 2 diabetes

1.16%

1.42%

Variables not in QRISK

 Number medical records in the previous year

14.94 (13.97)

8.83 (11.45)

 > 50 medical records in the previous year

2.84%

1.37%

 Number of prescription items in the previous year

9.60 (19.87)

5.72 (16.00)

 Number with > 50 prescription items in the previous year

3.49%

2.04%

 Alcohol abuse

0.65%

1.46%

 Anxiety

13.44%

7.96%

 Left ventricular hypertrophy

0.14%

0.18%

 Region

  

  North East

1.89%

1.96%

  North west

13.10%

13.38%

  Yorkshire and the Humber

3.93%

3.85%

  East Midlands

3.14%

3.23%

  West Midlands

11.04%

11.28%

  East of England

11.67%

11.68%

  South west

11.99%

11.88%

  South Central

12.84%

12.81%

  London

17.52%

17.18%

  South East Coast

12.88%

12.74%