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Table 4 Distribution of risks (2.5th and 97.5th percentile) of patients in the test cohort according to each model, stratified by their risk in model A, and average 95% CI for risks in model A

From: The uncertainty with using risk prediction models for individual decision making: an exemplar cohort study examining the prediction of cardiovascular disease in English primary care

  Female cohort Male cohort
10-year risk using model A Average 95% CI in model A Percentile range model B Percentile range model C Percentile range model D Percentile range model E Percentile range model F Average 95% CI in model A Percentile range model B Percentile range model C Percentile range model D Percentile range model E Percentile range model F
0–1% 0.3–0.4% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.0% 0.3–0.4% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.0% 0.0–1.0% 0.0–1.1%
1–2% 1.4–1.5% 1.0–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.6–2.3% 0.6–2.4% 0.6–2.6% 1.4–1.6% 1.0–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.7%
2–3% 2.3–2.6% 1.9–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.2–3.9% 1.1–4.0% 1.1–4.4% 2.4–2.6% 2.0–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.3–3.4% 1.2–3.5% 1.1–4.4%
3–4% 3.3–3.6% 2.8–5.0% 2.7–5.5% 1.7–5.4% 1.6–5.6% 1.5–6.1% 3.3–3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 1.9–4.7% 1.8–5.0% 1.6–6.0%
4–5% 4.3–4.7% 3.7–6.5% 3.6–7.4% 2.3–7.2% 2.2–7.3% 2.1–8.0% 4.3–4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.8–6.2% 2.5–6.0% 2.4–6.3% 2.1–7.5%
5–6% 5.3–5.7% 4.5–7.8% 4.4–8.9% 2.8–8.5% 2.6–8.8% 2.5–9.5% 5.3–5.7% 4.8–6.9% 4.7–7.7% 3.1–7.6% 2.9–7.6% 2.5–9.3%
6–7% 6.2–6.8% 5.4–9.3% 5.3–10.6% 3.3–10.0% 3.1–10.1% 3.0–11.3% 6.2–6.7% 5.7–8.2% 5.6–8.9% 3.7–8.9% 3.5–9.0% 3.1–11.1%
7–8% 7.2–7.8% 6.3–10.4% 6.1–11.8% 3.8–11.5% 3.6–11.7% 3.5–12.6% 7.2–7.8% 6.6–9.5% 6.5–10.7% 4.3–10.4% 4.1–10.6% 3.7–12.9%
8–9% 8.2–8.8% 7.1–11.7% 6.8–14.3% 4.3–13.3% 4.1–13.3% 4.0–14.6% 8.2–8.8% 7.5–10.6% 7.5–11.8% 4.9–11.5% 4.6–11.9% 4.2–14.1%
9–10% 9.1–9.9% 8.0–13.5% 7.7–16.1% 4.9–15.0% 4.6–15.5% 4.4–16.3% 9.2–9.8% 8.4–11.8% 8.3–13.8% 5.5–13.2% 5.1–13.7% 4.6–15.8%
10–11% 10.1–10.9% 8.8–14.5% 8.5–16.8% 5.3–16.6% 5.1–16.8% 4.9–18.1% 10.1–10.8% 9.2–13.0% 9.0–15.3% 6.0–14.9% 5.6–15.1% 5.2–17.8%
11–12% 11.1–11.9% 9.8–16.3% 9.4–19.6% 5.9–19.3% 5.6–20.1% 5.4–21.1% 11.1–11.9% 10.1–14.2% 9.9–16.5% 6.7–15.8% 6.3–16.0% 5.9–18.9%
12–13% 12.1–12.9% 10.7–17.9% 10.1–21.3% 6.4–20.5% 6.0–21.5% 5.8–22.5% 12.1–12.9% 11.0–15.5% 10.8–17.8% 7.3–17.0% 6.8–17.8% 6.4–20.5%
13–14% 13.0–14.0% 11.4–18.5% 10.9–21.5% 7.1–21.1% 6.7–22.6% 6.6–23.3% 13.1–14.0% 12.0–16.8% 11.8–19.6% 8.0–19.2% 7.5–19.9% 6.9–22.6%
14–15% 14.0–15.0% 12.2–19.7% 11.6–23.3% 7.5–22.5% 7.3–22.7% 6.9–24.3% 14.0–15.0% 12.8–17.8% 12.6–21.7% 8.5–20.3% 8.0–20.8% 7.5–23.3%
15–16% 15.0–16.0% 13.1–22.0% 12.3–26.5% 8.2–26.3% 7.7–27.2% 7.6–28.1% 15.0–16.0% 13.5–19.2% 13.3–22.8% 9.0–21.7% 8.6–22.2% 8.1–23.8%
16–17% 15.9–17.1% 13.9–22.1% 13.0–27.4% 8.5–26.9% 8.0–27.5% 7.9–28.1% 16.0–17.0% 14.6–20.4% 14.2–24.0% 9.8–24.0% 9.2–24.7% 8.7–27.4%
17–18% 16.9–18.1% 14.9–23.9% 14.1–27.9% 9.2–28.9% 8.8–28.7% 8.7–29.5% 16.9–18.1% 15.3–22.8% 15.0–26.9% 10.3–25.5% 9.7–25.5% 9.2–28.6%
18–19% 17.9–19.2% 15.7–25.4% 14.8–30.0% 9.8–29.8% 9.6–29.7% 9.1–32.7% 17.9–19.1% 16.3–23.8% 15.8–26.7% 10.9–26.8% 10.4–26.7% 10.0–29.5%
19–20% 18.8–20.2% 16.6–25.8% 15.7–32.1% 10.5–32.6% 10.0–33.8% 9.7–34.4% 18.9–20.2% 17.2–25.2% 16.7–28.7% 11.5–29.5% 10.9–28.9% 10.4–32.1%
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