A dynamic neural network model for predicting risk of Zika in real time

Table 2 Summary of global and regional model performance

Relative risk classification scheme	Prediction window size (N in weeks)	Overall prediction accuracy (ACC)
		Global		Caribbean		South America		Central America
		Risk indicator		Risk indicator		Risk indicator		Risk indicator
		Incidence	Cases	Incidence	Cases	Incidence	Cases	Incidence	cases
R = 0.1	1	95.71	96.95	94.63	98.84	93.65	92.28	97.95	94.18
	2	94.29	96.12	92.90	98.86	91.68	90.78	97.01	90.67
	4	91.30	93.13	89.38	97.30	87.11	84.80	95.34	84.14
	8	86.34	90.63	85.72	95.70	74.58	81.97	91.74	76.69
	12	82.57	87.05	81.75	93.59	68.63	75.94	87.99	68.14
R = 0.2	1	93.07	93.54	91.73	94.94	92.65	90.16	92.64	87.33
	2	90.01	92.27	88.30	93.93	89.37	88.60	89.26	84.68
	4	84.68	88.09	82.66	89.72	82.77	84.40	82.28	76.49
	8	75.22	81.87	71.58	83.96	69.34	76.27	73.73	65.25
	12	68.96	78.25	65.01	80.92	62.75	71.30	63.73	58.09
R = 0.3	1	90.70	93.41	88.30	94.05	91.41	91.41	90.58	87.84
	2	86.74	89.82	85.27	91.06	86.68	86.68	84.15	80.46
	4	80.85	84.31	77.10	85.36	82.63	79.38	78.73	72.76
	8	70.10	76.46	64.73	77.31	69.34	71.34	66.31	58.05
	12	63.37	71.66	56.86	70.66	62.39	64.88	57.35	56.86
R = 0.4	1	90.46	91.68	88.25	91.31	93.03	90.54	87.84	86.64
	2	86.79	88.52	84.62	88.24	89.76	86.30	83.10	81.51
	4	79.36	81.67	76.41	81.97	83.04	75.44	72.57	71.83
	8	68.47	72.85	61.67	71.12	73.19	71.19	62.29	54.66
	12	59.82	65.22	51.89	60.33	62.21	60.96	53.19	53.43
R = 0.5	1	89.51	91.16	89.67	90.25	87.42	88.42	85.10	90.41
	2	86.21	86.90	84.83	86.13	85.15	82.84	83.10	84.15
	4	77.67	78.46	76.29	77.55	75.44	75.71	70.71	67.72
	8	66.42	68.05	61.99	65.78	69.80	68.26	53.60	47.46
	12	56.16	58.31	48.04	51.81	62.21	54.90	43.38	46.81

ISSN: 1741-7015