Fig. 11
From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
Sub-epidemic profiles of the epidemic wave forecasts for the Ebola epidemic in DRC displayed in Fig. 10. The sub-epidemic profiles of the forecasts derived for the ongoing Ebola outbreak in DRC exhibit consecutive and relatively stable sub-epidemics. Black circles correspond to the data points. Different colors represent different sub-epidemics of the epidemic wave profile. The vertical line indicates the start time of the forecast. The sub-epidemic model was unable to capture a significant increase in the incidence pattern associated with the fourth sub-epidemic of the epidemic wave profile