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Fig. 3 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 3

From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

Fig. 3

Best fit of the sub-epidemic model to the SARS outbreak in Singapore. Our sub-epidemic model yielded the best fit to the incidence curve of the SARS outbreak (TableĀ 1). Moreover, the model successfully predicts the 2-wave pattern of the outbreak. Further, parameter estimates are well identified as indicated by their relatively narrow confidence intervals. For instance, the 95% confidence interval for the size of the initial sub-epidemic ranges between 106 and 143 cases. The top panels display the empirical distribution of r, p, K, andĀ q. Bottom panels show the model fit (left), the sub-epidemic profile (center), and the residuals (right). Black circles correspond to the data points. The best model fit (solid red line) and 95% prediction interval (dashed red lines) are also shown. Cyan curves are the associated uncertainty from individual bootstrapped curves assuming a Poisson error structure. Different sub-epidemics comprising the epidemic wave are plotted using different colors

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