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Fig. 8 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 8

From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

Fig. 8

Representative 5-week ahead forecasts of the sub-epidemic model to the plague outbreak in Madagascar. The model was able to outperform simpler growth models in short-term forecasts based on the MAE, the MIS, and the coverage of the 95% prediction interval (TableĀ 3). Black circles correspond to the data points. The model fit (solid red line) and 95% prediction interval (dashed red lines) are also shown. The vertical line indicates the start time of the forecast

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