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Table 1 Quality of the model fits to outbreak data. The sub-epidemic model yielded the best fit to the daily incidence curves based on four performance metrics described in the text. Values highlighted in italics correspond to the best performance metric for a given outbreak

From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

Model Mean absolute error (MAE) Mean squared error (MSE) Mean interval score (MIS) Percentage coverage of the 95% prediction interval
SARS in Singapore
 Sub-epidemic wave 1.7 6.2 10.9 90.0
 Richards 2.1 8.1 15.5 85.7
 Logistic 2.0 9.8 22.7 84.3
Plague in Madagascar
 Sub-epidemic wave 5.9 50.8 37.7 80
 Richards 7.0 77.7 63.0 70
 Logistic 16.4 408.6 452.0 26
Ebola in DRC
 Sub-epidemic wave 8.0 117.8 89.6 75.0
 Richards 13.2 276.2 251.6 40.6
 Logistic 18.1 467.7 463.2 28.1