Table 1 Quality of the model fits to outbreak data. The sub-epidemic model yielded the best fit to the daily incidence curves based on four performance metrics described in the text. Values highlighted in italics correspond to the best performance metric for a given outbreak
From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
Model | Mean absolute error (MAE) | Mean squared error (MSE) | Mean interval score (MIS) | Percentage coverage of the 95% prediction interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SARS in Singapore | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 1.7 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 90.0 |
 Richards | 2.1 | 8.1 | 15.5 | 85.7 |
 Logistic | 2.0 | 9.8 | 22.7 | 84.3 |
Plague in Madagascar | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 5.9 | 50.8 | 37.7 | 80 |
 Richards | 7.0 | 77.7 | 63.0 | 70 |
 Logistic | 16.4 | 408.6 | 452.0 | 26 |
Ebola in DRC | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 8.0 | 117.8 | 89.6 | 75.0 |
 Richards | 13.2 | 276.2 | 251.6 | 40.6 |
 Logistic | 18.1 | 467.7 | 463.2 | 28.1 |