From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
Model | Mean absolute error (MAE) | Mean squared error (MSE) | Mean interval score (MIS) | Percentage coverage of the 95% prediction interval |
---|---|---|---|---|
2 weeks ahead | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 11.3 | 216.8 | 64.4 | 86 |
 Richards | 13.2 | 275.0 | 101.3 | 76 |
 Logistic | 27.9 | 878.1 | 714.0 | 14 |
3 weeks ahead | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 12.8 | 353.5 | 90.4 | 86.7 |
 Richards | 14.9 | 392.0 | 112.0 | 74.7 |
 Logistic | 29.7 | 1003.0 | 792.0 | 12.0 |
4 weeks ahead | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 14.4 | 549.7 | 115.9 | 85.0 |
 Richards | 16.4 | 508.0 | 137.9 | 70.0 |
 Logistic | 31.3 | 1112.4 | 862.2 | 11.0 |
5 weeks ahead | ||||
 Sub-epidemic wave | 16.3 | 878.5 | 138.8 | 85.6 |
 Richards | 17.5 | 624.6 | 164.6 | 65.6 |
 Logistic | 32.3 | 1197.0 | 919.1 | 10.4 |