Table 2 Spearman’s rank correlation between immunity estimated from nationwide serology and (if contact-adjusted) contact studies on the one hand and the mean number of cases in the 10 years following the studies on the other
Immunity model | R0 model | Vaccination model | Equivocal samples | Correlation (90% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Projected | Negative | −0.28 (−0.36, −0.2) |
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Ignored | Negative | −0.16 (−0.27, −0.042) |
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Projected | Positive | −0.53 (−0.59, −0.46) |
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Ignored | Positive | −0.39 (−0.49, −0.27) |
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Projected | Removed | −0.5 (−0.56, −0.43) |
Contact-adjusted | Fixed | Ignored | Removed | −0.37 (−0.47, −0.24) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Projected | Negative | −0.23 (−0.35, −0.13) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Ignored | Negative | −0.078 (−0.21, 0.059) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Projected | Positive | −0.49 (−0.55, −0.44) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Ignored | Positive | −0.38 (−0.47, −0.25) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Projected | Removed | −0.47 (−0.52, −0.4) |
Contact-adjusted | Scaled | Ignored | Removed | −0.37 (−0.45, −0.22) |
Plain | Fixed | Projected | Negative | −0.025 (−0.086, 0.025) |
Plain | Fixed | Ignored | Negative | 0.0098 (−0.047, 0.054) |
Plain | Fixed | Projected | Positive | −0.29 (−0.36, −0.21) |
Plain | Fixed | Ignored | Positive | −0.23 (−0.3, −0.16) |
Plain | Fixed | Projected | Removed | −0.26 (−0.33, −0.19) |
Plain | Fixed | Ignored | Removed | −0.21 (−0.28, −0.14) |
Plain | Scaled | Projected | Negative | 0.032 (−0.0098, 0.081) |
Plain | Scaled | Ignored | Negative | 0.056 (0.015, 0.11) |
Plain | Scaled | Projected | Positive | −0.22 (−0.28, −0.14) |
Plain | Scaled | Ignored | Positive | −0.16 (−0.23, −0.1) |
Plain | Scaled | Projected | Removed | −0.19 (−0.25, −0.13) |
Plain | Scaled | Ignored | Removed | −0.14 (−0.2, −0.083) |