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Table 2 Spearman’s rank correlation between immunity estimated from nationwide serology and (if contact-adjusted) contact studies on the one hand and the mean number of cases in the 10 years following the studies on the other

From: Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination

Immunity model R0 model Vaccination model Equivocal samples Correlation (90% CI)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Projected Negative −0.28 (−0.36, −0.2)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Ignored Negative −0.16 (−0.27, −0.042)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Projected Positive −0.53 (−0.59, −0.46)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Ignored Positive −0.39 (−0.49, −0.27)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Projected Removed −0.5 (−0.56, −0.43)
Contact-adjusted Fixed Ignored Removed −0.37 (−0.47, −0.24)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Projected Negative −0.23 (−0.35, −0.13)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Ignored Negative −0.078 (−0.21, 0.059)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Projected Positive −0.49 (−0.55, −0.44)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Ignored Positive −0.38 (−0.47, −0.25)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Projected Removed −0.47 (−0.52, −0.4)
Contact-adjusted Scaled Ignored Removed −0.37 (−0.45, −0.22)
Plain Fixed Projected Negative −0.025 (−0.086, 0.025)
Plain Fixed Ignored Negative 0.0098 (−0.047, 0.054)
Plain Fixed Projected Positive −0.29 (−0.36, −0.21)
Plain Fixed Ignored Positive −0.23 (−0.3, −0.16)
Plain Fixed Projected Removed −0.26 (−0.33, −0.19)
Plain Fixed Ignored Removed −0.21 (−0.28, −0.14)
Plain Scaled Projected Negative 0.032 (−0.0098, 0.081)
Plain Scaled Ignored Negative 0.056 (0.015, 0.11)
Plain Scaled Projected Positive −0.22 (−0.28, −0.14)
Plain Scaled Ignored Positive −0.16 (−0.23, −0.1)
Plain Scaled Projected Removed −0.19 (−0.25, −0.13)
Plain Scaled Ignored Removed −0.14 (−0.2, −0.083)
  1. The model with the greatest absolute correlation is highlighted in italics