Table 4 Costs of outcomes when making a decision based on a risk threshold

Intervene (predicted risk ≥t)

C_TP = 15

The cost of detected/treated disease, e.g., risk of death or severe morbidity despite detection, plus the cost of intervening

C_FP = 5

The cost of an unneeded intervention, e.g., invasiveness of testing, complication risks of treatment

Do not intervene

(predicted risk <t)

C_FN = 95

The cost of an undetected disease, i.e., the risk of death or severe morbidity

C_TN = 0

The cost of applying the risk model