Fig. 2
Model fit and estimated posteriors. a Model fit to carriage data from the observational study for different age groups: vaccinated 2 years old (red), vaccinated 3–5 years old (purple), unvaccinated 6–7 years old (green) and unvaccinated 8–9 years old (orange). The survey data is represented by full circles, the model output by full squares (data in Fig. 1d, Additional file 1: Table S7). b Priors (lines) and estimated posterior distributions (shaded) of duration of carriage per age group. c Visual comparison of the estimated mean and 95% CI of posterior of vaccine efficacy against vaccine-type carriage (red) in the context of estimates from other studies (in legend, Additional file 1: Table S2). d The estimated posterior distributions of the transmission coefficients β and θ are shown in two dimensions (coloured area). The estimated actual distribution for β is in the x-axis and θ in the y-axis (visualised in grey). Note that, for visualisation purposes, the axes are log10-transformed and the grey distributions’ height has no scale (height is not quantified). a–d Solutions presented are obtained from sampling 100,000 parameter values from posteriors and simulating the dynamic model