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Fig. 5 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 5

From: Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi: a modelling study

Fig. 5

Estimated vaccine-type carriage and sensitivity of projections to baseline transmission in the context of other studies. a Estimated pre-vaccination vaccine-type carriage (and 95% CI) for the age group 0–5 years of age (red) in the context of carriage levels reported in other studies (in legend, Additional file 1: Table S6). b The baseline transmission coefficient (β) is varied by considering the 70%, 60%, 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% lower and 10% and 20% higher transmission than the estimated for Blantyre (Malawi, βMalawi) when fitting the observational study (e.g. 10% lower is 0.9*βMalawi). The impact projections for the age group 0–5 years old using the β estimated for Blantyre (Malawi) are presented by the dashed line (as in Fig. 3b). For visual purposes only, the means are shown, obtained from simulations sampling 100,000 parameter values from posteriors. The symbols and whiskers are measures of reported impact (carriage reduction) and 95% CIs for several published studies (in legend, Additional file 1: Table S5). The grey arrows mark the year of PCV13 introduction and the years of the four surveys

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