Using health facility-based serological surveillance to predict receptive areas at risk of malaria outbreaks in elimination areas

Table 3 Factors associated with P. vivax transmission in Kulon Progo District, Indonesia, 2018

Variable	Total	P. vivax seropositive		Bivariate		Multivariable
Variable	n (%)	n	% (95% CI)	OR^a (95% CI)	p	aOR^b (95% CI)	p
Age (years)
≤ 15	623 (6.8)	80	12.9 (10.5–15.7)	1		1
16–30	2108 (23.1)	750	35.6 (33.6–37.6)	4.6 (3.6–5.9)	0.000	5.1 (3.9–6.6)	0.000
31–45	2531 (27.7)	1115	44.1 (42.1–46.0)	6.5 (5.0–8.3)	0.000	6.6 (5.1–8.7)	0.000
> 45	3880 (42.4)	1836	47.3 (45.8–48.9)	7.5 (5.9–9.7)	0.000	7.7 (5.9–10.0)	0.000
Gender
Female	5945 (65.0)	2309	38.8 (37.6–40.1)	1		1
Male	3206 (35.0)	1476	46.0 (44.3–47.8)	1.3 (1.2–1.4)	0.000	1.3 (1.2–1.5)	0.000
Status
Accompanying	1960 (21.4)	895	45.7 (43.5–47.9)	1
Patients	7191 (78.6)	2889	40.2 (39.0–41.3)	0.9 (0.8–1.0)	0.028
Occupation
Non-forest goers	2653 (29.0)	1023	38.6 (36.7–40.4)	1		1
Forest goers	2685 (29.4)	1393	51.9 (50.0–53.8)	1.6 (1.4–1.8)	0.000	1.2 (1.0–1.3)	0.012
Unemployed	3810 (41.6)	1368	35.9 (34.4–37.4)	0.9 (0.8–1.0)	0.011	1.0 (0.9–1.1)	0.446
Survey time
Quarter 1	2324 (25.4)	903	38.9 (36.9–40.9)	1		1
Quarter 2	2217 (24.2)	1024	46.2 (44.1–48.3)	1.4 (1.2–1.5)	0.000	1.5 (1.3–1.6)	0.000
Quarter 3	2328 (25.4)	930	40.0 (38.0–42.0)	1.1 (0.9–1.2)	0.348	1.0 (0.9–1.2)	0.524
Quarter 4	2283 (24.9)	928	40.7 (38.6–42.7)	1.1 (1.0–1.2)	0.196	1.0 (0.9–1.2)	0.799
Bed net use
No	6650 (72.7)	2556	38.4 (37.3–39.6)	1		1
Yes	2502 (27.3)	1229	49.1 (47.2–51.1)	1.2 (1.1–1.3)	0.000	1.2 (1.1–1.3)	0.001
Fever
No	8640 (94.9)	3604	41.7 (40.7–42.8)	1
Yes	465 (5.1)	164	35.3 (31.1–39.7)	0.6 (0.5–0.8)	0.000
Recent travel
No	7681 (84.1)	3171	41.3 (39.3–44.4)	1
Yes	1457 (15.9)	609	41.8 (40.2–42.4)	0.9 (0.8–1.1)	0.243

^aBivariate OR adjusted by correlation at a health facility level
^bMultivariable OR adjusted by other covariates with bivariate p value < 0.05, and correlation at a health facility level
Quarter 1: May–July 2017, Quarter 2: August–October 2017, Quarter 3: November 2017–January 2018, Quarter 4: February–April 2018

ISSN: 1741-7015