Table 1 Fixed model parameters in England and in France
Parameter | Symbol* | Value in England | Value in France | Source/comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Birth rate | B(t) | Additional file 1: Fig. S2 | Additional file 1: Fig. S2 | Fixed so that simulated demography matched observed demography (see Additional file 1) |
Demographic rates | μa(t) | Additional file 1: Fig. S2 | Additional file 1: Fig. S2 | |
Carriage prevalence of non-MenW:cc11 | ca(non-cc11) | Fig. 2b | Fig. 2b | Fixed assuming a MenW carriage prevalence of 0.02 in 20–24 yo (Ref. [43], Table 1) Sensitivity analyses: alternative values of 0.01 and of 0.03 (Additional file 1: Table S1) |
Transmissibility of non-MenW:cc11 | βa | Fig. 2c | Fig. 2c | Calibrated to have stationary epidemiology of MenW before emergence of MenW:cc11/SA |
Invasiveness of non-MenW:cc11 | θa | Fig. 2d | Fig. 2d | |
Clearance rate of MenW carriage | γ | 365/113 per year | 365/113 per year | Average carriage duration of 113 days (Ref. [43], Appendix Table 3) Sensitivity analysis: value of 2 per year (Additional file 1: Table S1) |
Age-specific contact rates | ma,a’ | Additional file 1: Fig. S1 | Additional file 1: Fig. S1 | |
Number of imported MenW:cc11/SA carriers | ι | 10 | 10 | Assumption, low value chosen to keep contribution of imported carriers to epidemiological dynamics minimal Sensitivity analyses: values of 1, 100 (Additional file 1: Table S1) |
Time of MenW:cc11/SA carriage emergence | t0 | 2009.5 | Estimated | First case of MenW:cc11/SA disease reported during season 2009/2010 in England Sensitivity analysis: value of 2008.5 in England (Additional file 1: Table S1) |