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Table 2 Association of standardized risk scores (CAIDE, FRS, and FINDRISC) with incidence of dementia

From: Risk prediction models for dementia: role of age and cardiometabolic risk factors

 

HR (95% CI)

R2 (95% CI)

C-statistic (95% CI)

pe

AIC

ΔAIC

Risk scores assessed in 1991–1993a, age 39 to 63 years (mean follow-up 23.5 years; 318 cases of dementia in 7553 participants)

 CAIDE

2.24 (1.98, 2.52)

32.5 (25.5, 39.4)

0.714 (0.690, 0.739)

Ref.

5403.2

Ref.

 FRS

2.08 (1.87, 2.31)

32.0 (24.9, 39.5)

0.719 (0.693, 0.745)

0.727

5406.5

3.3

 FINDRISC

1.52 (1.38, 1.67)

12.5 (7.47, 19.3)

0.630 (0.602, 0.659)

< 0.001

5521.2

118.0

Analysis stratified by baseline age

Risk scores assessed at 55 yearsb(mean follow-up 17.8 years; 267 cases of dementia in 6773 participants)

 CAIDE

1.22 (1.09, 1.38)

2.53 (0.31, 6.55)

0.552 (0.514, 0.590)

Ref.

4264.3

Ref.

 FRS

1.43 (1.26, 1.61)

6.97 (2.77, 13.0)

0.584 (0.547, 0.621)

0.136

4244.5

− 19.8

 FINDRISC

1.25 (1.10, 1.41)

2.72 (0.35, 6.73)

0.560 (0.522, 0.599)

0.692

4263.5

− 0.8

Risk scores assessed at 60 yearsc(mean follow-up 14 years; 301 cases of dementia in 7008 participants)

 CAIDE

1.03 (0.92, 1.16)

0.06 (0.00, 1.60)

0.496 (0.455, 0.537)

Ref.

4636.3

Ref.

 FRS

1.23 (1.10, 1.38)

2.57 (0.52, 6.38)

0.563 (0.526, 0.600)

0.003

4623.8

− 12.5

 FINDRISC

1.20 (1.07, 1.36)

1.75 (0.08, 5.32)

0.531 (0.489, 0.572)

0.131

4627.9

− 8.4

Risk scores assessed at 65 yearsd(mean follow-up 9.6 years; 267 cases of dementia in 6455 participants)

 CAIDE

1.05 (0.93, 1.18)

0.13 (0.00, 1.85)

0.504 (0.463, 0.546)

Ref.

3984.9

Ref.

 FRS

1.13 (1.01, 1.27)

1.06 (0.01, 4.22)

0.533 (0.493, 0.574)

0.240

3980.8

− 4.1

 FINDRISC

1.13 (1.00, 1.28)

0.81 (0.01, 3.68)

0.517 (0.476, 0.558)

0.613

3981.9

− 3.0

  1. CAIDE Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia, FRS Framingham cardiovascular Risk Score, FINDRISC Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, R2 Royston’s R2, C-index Harrell’s C-index, AIC Akaike information criterion
  2. a1991–1993: 1 SD corresponds to 2.9 points in CAIDE, 3.7 points for men and 4.2 points for women in FRS, and 3.3 points for men and 3.9 points for women in FINDRISC
  3. bAge 55: 1 SD corresponds to 1.9 points in CAIDE, 3.4 points for men and 3.6 points for women in FRS, and 3.6 points for men and 4.0 points for women in FINDRISC
  4. cAge 60: 1 SD corresponds to 1.9 points in the CAIDE, 3.1 points for men and 3.6 points for women in FRS, and 3.8 points for men and 4.1 points for women in FINDRISC
  5. dAge 65: 1 SD corresponds to 1.9 points in the CAIDE, 2.9 points for men and 3.6 points for women in FRS, and 4.0 points for men and 4.4 points for women in FINDRISC
  6. ep values for difference in C-statistic