Table 3 Risk prediction models for CRC metastasis
Author, year | Country | Study design | Population | Outcome | Prediction time horizon | Sample size (development/validation) | Predictors | Model performance (95%CI) | Model presentation | Internal validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
*Macias-Garcia, 2015 [22] | Spain | D | Submucosal invasive (T1) CRC | Lymph node metastasis | NA | 97 | Sessile morphology | AUC 0.90 (0.81–0.99) | Risk score | NA |
Tumor differentiation | ||||||||||
Infiltrative growth pattern | ||||||||||
Lymphoid infiltrate | ||||||||||
Taylor, 1990 [23] | UK | D | CRC | Liver metastasis | 10 years | 134 | Sex | Sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.62 | Formula | NA |
ALP | ||||||||||
Dukes B | ||||||||||
Dukes C | ||||||||||
Segelman, 2014 [24] | Sweden | D + IV | CRC (I–III) | Peritoneal metastasis | 3 years | colon 5348/rectal 2696 | Age | C statistic: colon 0.80, rectal 0.78; calibration plot | Calculator | Bootstrapping |
Cancer location | ||||||||||
pT stage | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
No. of lymph nodes examined | ||||||||||
Preoperative radiotherapy radicality | ||||||||||
Type of surgery | ||||||||||
Adjuvant chemotherapy | ||||||||||
*Huang, 2016 [25] | China | D + IV | CRC | Lymph node metastasis | NA | 266/60 | Radiomics signature | C statistic 0.736 (0.759–0.766); Hosmer–Lemeshow test: p = 0.916 | Nomogram | Random split |
CEA | ||||||||||
CT-reported LN status | ||||||||||
*Hu, 2019 [26] | China | D + IV | CRC patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules | Lung metastasis | NA | 136/58 | Chronicity (synchronous nodule or metachronous lesion) | AUC 0.929 (0.885–0.974); calibration plot | Nomogram | Random split |
Rad-score | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
*Xu, 2019 [27] | China | D + IV | CRC | Synchronous bone metastasis | NA | 41,902/13,967 | Cancer location | AUC 0.903; sensitivity 0.851; specificity 0.845 | Risk score | Random split |
Tumor differentiation | ||||||||||
Cancer histological type | ||||||||||
CEA | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
Brain metastasis | ||||||||||
Liver metastasis | ||||||||||
Lung metastasis | ||||||||||
*JR, 2019 [28] | Korea | D + EV | Submucosal invasive (T1) CRC | Lymph node metastasis | NA | 833/722 | Histologic grade | AUC 0.812 (0.770–0.855); Hosmer–Lemeshow test: p = 0.737 | Nomogram | NA |
Submucosal invasion | ||||||||||
Vascular invasion | ||||||||||
Tumor budding | ||||||||||
Beumer, 2014 [29] | Netherlands | D + EV | CRC | Distant metastasis | 5 years | 50/43 | MiR25/miR339 | AUC 0.80 (0.67–0.93); calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
AJCC stage | ||||||||||
Age at surgery | ||||||||||
Sex | ||||||||||
*Wang, 2017 [30] | China | D | Colon cancer | Peritoneal metastasis | NA | 1417 | Age | ROC 0.753 | Nomogram | NA |
pT stage | ||||||||||
Lesion not traversable | ||||||||||
Infiltrative growth pattern | ||||||||||
Tumor size | ||||||||||
CEA | ||||||||||
Histopathologic type of mucinous or signet ring cell adenocarcinoma | ||||||||||
Gijn, 2015 [31] | Netherlands | D + IV | Rectal cancer (tis–III) | Metastasis | 5 years | 2172 | Distance from the anal verge | C statistic 0.761 (0.740–0.784); Hosmer–Lemeshow test: p = 0.82 | Nomogram | Cross-validation |
pT stage | ||||||||||
pA stage | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
Surgery type | ||||||||||
Residual tumor status | ||||||||||
Valentini, 2011 [32] | Belgium | D + EV | Rectal cancer (II–III) | Metastasis | 5 years | 3458 | pT stage | External C statistic 0.73 (0.68–0.77); Wald statistic: p = 0.057 | Nomogram | Random split |
pN stage | ||||||||||
Surgery type | ||||||||||
Adjuvant chemotherapy | ||||||||||
Sun, 2017 [33] | China | D + EV | Rectal cancer (I–III) | Distant metastasis | 5 years | 425/97 | CRM | C statistic 0.70 (0.64–0.75)/0.71 (0.62–0.81); calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
IMA nodes | ||||||||||
AJCC stage |