Table 4 Risk prediction models for CRC recurrence
Author, year | Country | Study design | Population | Outcome | Prediction time horizon | Sample size (development/validation) | Predictors | Model performance (95%CI) | Model presentation | Internal validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hoshino, 2016 [34] | Japan | D | CRC (II) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 4167 | Sex | C statistic 0.64; calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
CEA | ||||||||||
Tumor location | ||||||||||
Tumor depth | ||||||||||
Lymphatic invasion | ||||||||||
Venous invasion | ||||||||||
No. of positive lymph nodes | ||||||||||
Peng, 2010 [37] | China | D | CRC (II–III) | Overall recurrence | 3 years | 95 | AJCC stage | AUC 0.75 | Formula | NA |
Genetic score | ||||||||||
Ying, 2014 [38] | China | D | CRC (I–III, curative resection) | Overall recurrence | 3 years | 205 | Tumor size | C statistic 0.810/0.890/0.802 | Nomogram | NA |
Tumor differentiation | ||||||||||
AJCC stage | ||||||||||
NLR | ||||||||||
Chemotherapy | ||||||||||
Zakaria, 2007 [39] | Japan | D | CRC (liver metastasis + hepatectomy) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 662 | Hepatoduodenal | C statistic 0.61 (0.57–0.64)/0.58 (0.550.61) | Nomogram | NA |
Lymph node status | ||||||||||
Transfusions | ||||||||||
Primary cancer | ||||||||||
Regional lymph node | ||||||||||
No. of metastasis | ||||||||||
Tian, 2017 [36] | China | D | CRC | Overall recurrence | 3 years | 556 | Gene signature | AUC 0.921 (0.869–0.972); calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
AJCC stage | ||||||||||
Tumor differentiation | ||||||||||
*Kim, 2018 [40] | Korea | D + IV | CRC (I) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 1538 | Sex | C statistic 0.71; calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
Tumor location | ||||||||||
pT stage | ||||||||||
LVI | ||||||||||
Tumor size | ||||||||||
*Miyoshi, 2016 [41] | Japan | D + EV | CRC (IV with liver and/or lung metastases) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 113 | Preoperative CEA | C statistic 0.631 | Nomogram | NA |
Tumor location | ||||||||||
Tumor invasion | ||||||||||
Lymph node metastasis | ||||||||||
Synchronous metastatic lesions | ||||||||||
*Saso, 2018 [42] | Japan | D + EV | Colon cancer (II) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 352/213 | CEA level | C statistic 0.675; external C statistic 0.552 | Nomogram | NA |
Tumor invasion | ||||||||||
Lymphatic invasion | ||||||||||
Venous invasion | ||||||||||
Renfro, 2014 [35] | USA | D + EV | Colon cancer (III) | Overall recurrence | 5 years | 15,995/1903 | Sex | C statistic 0.65; calibration plot | Nomogram | NA |
BMI | ||||||||||
PS | ||||||||||
T stage | ||||||||||
Lymph node ratio | ||||||||||
Grade | ||||||||||
Tumor location | ||||||||||
Treatment | ||||||||||
Hida, 2017 [43] | Japan | D | Rectal cancer (II–III) | Overall recurrence | 2 years | 792 | Tumor differentiation | AUC 0.831 | Formula | NA |
Depth | ||||||||||
Lymph node | ||||||||||
Surgery | ||||||||||
Postoperative complication | ||||||||||
Tumor height | ||||||||||
CEA | ||||||||||
Gijn, 2015 [31] | Netherlands | D + IV | Rectal cancer (tis-III) | Local recurrence | 6 years | 1823 | Distance from the anal verge | C statistic 0.787 (0.761–0.814); Hosmer–Lemeshow test: p = 0.68 | Nomogram | Cross-validation |
pT stage | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
pM stage | ||||||||||
Surgery type | ||||||||||
Residual tumor status | ||||||||||
Radiotherapy | ||||||||||
Valentini, 2011 [32] | Belgium | D + EV | Rectal cancer (II–III) | Local recurrence | 5 years | 3458 | pT stage | External C statistic 0.68 (0.59–0.76); Wald statistic: p = 0.064 | Nomogram | Random split |
cT stage | ||||||||||
pN stage | ||||||||||
Age | ||||||||||
Concomitant chemotherapy | ||||||||||
Adjuvant chemotherapy |