Fig. 2

Overview of the estimation results. a, b The estimated age-specific prevalence of seronegative persons, seropositive persons with low antibody concentrations, and seropositive persons with high antibody concentrations in females (a) and males (b), respectively. c The age-specific reactivation rates per year for females (black) and males (blue), respectively. The solid lines represent the estimated medians, and the shaded regions correspond to 95% credible intervals obtained from 1000 parameter samples from the posterior distribution. The circles are seroprevalence data [33] indicating the fraction of samples that would be classified as seronegative with the cut-off specified by the supplier of the assay. The circle size gives a measure for the number of samples in 1-year age groups. The number of samples per 1-year age group is approximately 35 (females) and 30 (males). Note that the seroprevalence is estimated with high precision and that credible intervals for the reactivation rates are broad