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Table 1 Impact of interventions on cCMV, primary infection, and re-infection/reactivation

From: Short- and long-term impact of vaccination against cytomegalovirus: a modeling study

Intervention scenario   Reduction % Reduction %   
  Reduction % incidence incidence Effective  
  birth prevalence primary re-infection/ reproduction DALYs
  cCMV infection reactivation number prevented
  median (95%CrI) median (95%CrI) median (95%CrI) median (95%CrI) median (95%CrI)
Universal vaccination      
Prevention of (re-)infection and reactivation      
6-month-old boys and girls 5.4 (4.1–7.7) 18.7 (16.6–21.9) 5.2 (3.9–8.0) 1.09 (0.98–1.20) 1446 (1007–2304)
10-year-old boys and girls 11.7 (10.2–14.1) 17.2 (15.2–20.3) 7.0 (5.0–10.0) 1.10 (0.98–1.21) 3,558 (2731–4979)
10-year-old girls 10.8 (9.7–12.8) 10.5 (9.1–13.2) 4.7 (3.5–7.2) 1.13 (1.01–1.26) 3,267 (2515–4386)
25-year-old women 31.7 (30.6–33.6) 9.9 (8.6–12.5) 7.9 (6.5–10.8) 1.11 (0.98–1.22) 15,969 (12,560–19,993)
Prevention of infection      
6-month-old boys and girls 3.2 (2.3–4.4) 15.4 (13.9–17.7) 2.4 (1.8–3.9) 1.13 (1.01–1.24) 788 (465–1091)
10-year-old boys and girls 5.6 (4.4-6.7) 12.5 (11.0–14.3) 2.2 (1.5–3.3) 1.16 (1.04–1.28) 1584 (1063–2087)
10-year-old girls 5.3 (4.2–6.0) 7.0 (6.2–8.1) 1.5 (1.0–2.3) 1.19 (1.07–1.31) 1500 (1012–1918)
25-year-old women 8.4 (6.6–10.7) 4.5 (4.1–4.9) 1.1 (0.9–1.5) 1.25 (1.12–1.36) 4227 (2646–4968)
Vaccination during pregnancy 71.4 (71.0–71.9) 2.4 (0.3–4.8) 5.9 (4.3–8.5) 1.05 (0.92–1.18) 49,705 (40,280–61,435)
Hygienic measures 1.8 (1.0–2.8) 3.0 (2.5–4.0) 0.9 (0.6–1.7) 1.27 (1.13–1.38) 819 (470–1278)
  1. The reductions are evaluated 20 years after the start of the intervention. The proportion of effectively vaccinated persons (vaccination coverage × vaccine efficacy) is 70%, and the average duration of protection is 10 years. Hygiene measures are modeled as a 70% reduction in infectious contacts between women of reproductive age (15–50 years) and young children (0–5 years). The effective reproduction number is defined as the average number of secondary infections at the start of an epidemic with one infected individual introduced in a population where 70% of persons are effectively vaccinated. This number smaller than 1 indicates that a given intervention is going to lead to the disease elimination in the long run. The burden of disease prevented by an intervention over the time period of 20 years in the Dutch population is given by the number of DALYs prevented