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Table 1 Impact of interventions on cCMV, primary infection, and re-infection/reactivation

From: Short- and long-term impact of vaccination against cytomegalovirus: a modeling study

Intervention scenario

 

Reduction %

Reduction %

  
 

Reduction %

incidence

incidence

Effective

 
 

birth prevalence

primary

re-infection/

reproduction

DALYs

 

cCMV

infection

reactivation

number

prevented

 

median (95%CrI)

median (95%CrI)

median (95%CrI)

median (95%CrI)

median (95%CrI)

Universal vaccination

     

Prevention of (re-)infection and reactivation

     

6-month-old boys and girls

5.4 (4.1–7.7)

18.7 (16.6–21.9)

5.2 (3.9–8.0)

1.09 (0.98–1.20)

1446 (1007–2304)

10-year-old boys and girls

11.7 (10.2–14.1)

17.2 (15.2–20.3)

7.0 (5.0–10.0)

1.10 (0.98–1.21)

3,558 (2731–4979)

10-year-old girls

10.8 (9.7–12.8)

10.5 (9.1–13.2)

4.7 (3.5–7.2)

1.13 (1.01–1.26)

3,267 (2515–4386)

25-year-old women

31.7 (30.6–33.6)

9.9 (8.6–12.5)

7.9 (6.5–10.8)

1.11 (0.98–1.22)

15,969 (12,560–19,993)

Prevention of infection

     

6-month-old boys and girls

3.2 (2.3–4.4)

15.4 (13.9–17.7)

2.4 (1.8–3.9)

1.13 (1.01–1.24)

788 (465–1091)

10-year-old boys and girls

5.6 (4.4-6.7)

12.5 (11.0–14.3)

2.2 (1.5–3.3)

1.16 (1.04–1.28)

1584 (1063–2087)

10-year-old girls

5.3 (4.2–6.0)

7.0 (6.2–8.1)

1.5 (1.0–2.3)

1.19 (1.07–1.31)

1500 (1012–1918)

25-year-old women

8.4 (6.6–10.7)

4.5 (4.1–4.9)

1.1 (0.9–1.5)

1.25 (1.12–1.36)

4227 (2646–4968)

Vaccination during pregnancy

71.4 (71.0–71.9)

2.4 (0.3–4.8)

5.9 (4.3–8.5)

1.05 (0.92–1.18)

49,705 (40,280–61,435)

Hygienic measures

1.8 (1.0–2.8)

3.0 (2.5–4.0)

0.9 (0.6–1.7)

1.27 (1.13–1.38)

819 (470–1278)

  1. The reductions are evaluated 20 years after the start of the intervention. The proportion of effectively vaccinated persons (vaccination coverage × vaccine efficacy) is 70%, and the average duration of protection is 10 years. Hygiene measures are modeled as a 70% reduction in infectious contacts between women of reproductive age (15–50 years) and young children (0–5 years). The effective reproduction number is defined as the average number of secondary infections at the start of an epidemic with one infected individual introduced in a population where 70% of persons are effectively vaccinated. This number smaller than 1 indicates that a given intervention is going to lead to the disease elimination in the long run. The burden of disease prevented by an intervention over the time period of 20 years in the Dutch population is given by the number of DALYs prevented