Using health facility deaths to estimate population causes of neonatal and child mortality in four African countries

Kalter, Henry D.; Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Kwamdera, Gift; Adewemimo, Wasilat Adeyinka; Nguefack, Félicitée; Roubanatou, Abdoulaye-Mamadou; Black, Robert E.

doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01639-1

Table 6 Comparing population cause distributions estimated from facility deaths to observed population cause distributions in the study countries

From: Using health facility deaths to estimate population causes of neonatal and child mortality in four African countries

*Age group* Analysis method	Country	CSMF accuracy of population causes of death estimated from facility deaths compared to observed population causes
*Age group* Analysis method	Country	N deaths	% facility deaths	Projection A* Estimate (95% CI)	Projection B** Estimate (95% CI)	Projection E*** Estimate (95% CI)
*Neonates*
EAVA	Cameroon	164	34%	0.85 (0.76, 0.90)	0.84 (0.72, 0.89)	0.87 (0.75, 0.91)
	Malawi	320	55%	0.89 (0.84, 0.94)	0.91 (0.85, 0.94)	0.93 (0.85, 0.95)
	Niger	453	19%	0.79 (0.67, 0.86)	0.75 (0.59, 0.84)	0.84 (0.66, 0.88)
	Nigeria	722	27%	0.91 (0.83, 0.93)	0.92 (0.82, 0.93)	0.93 (0.79, 0.93)
	Average			0.86	0.86	0.89
PCVA	Cameroon	164	34%	0.87 (0.73, 0.90)	0.87 (0.74, 0.92)	0.89 (0.74, 0.92)
	Malawi	320	55%	0.94 (0.88, 0.96)	0.95 (0.89, 0.97)	0.94 (0.88, 0.96)
	Niger	453	19%	0.83 (0.70, 0.89)	0.87 (0.69, 0.91)	0.83 (0.67, 0.87)
	Nigeria	722	27%	0.86 (0.77, 0.90)	0.88 (0.76, 0.93)	0.85 (0.74, 0.90)
	Average			0.88	0.89	0.88
*Children*
EAVA	Cameroon	635	29%	0.92 (0.85, 0.94)	0.91 (0.84, 0.94)	0.91 (0.85, 0.93)
	Malawi	691	50%	0.94 (0.90, 0.96)	0.95 (0.90, 0.96)	0.94 (0.89, 0.95)
	Niger	619	19%	0.90 (0.77, 0.92)	0.90 (0.40, 0.92)	0.92 (0.80, 0.93)
	Nigeria	2055	22%	0.95 (0.89, 0.96)	0.94 (0.88, 0.95)	0.95 (0.89, 0.96)
	Average			0.93	0.93	0.93
PCVA	Cameroon	635	29%	0.91 (0.83, 0.93)	0.90 (0.83, 0.93)	0.91 (0.83, 0.93)
	Malawi	691	50%	0.92 (0.88, 0.94)	0.92 (0.88, 0.94)	0.92 (0.87, 0.94)
	Niger	619	19%	0.94 (0.81, 0.94)	0.92 (0.79, 0.94)	0.92 (0.81, 0.94)
	Nigeria	2055	22%	0.96 (0.89, 0.96)	0.97 (0.89, 0.97)	0.95 (0.89, 0.96)
	Average			0.93	0.93	0.93

Observed and estimated population cause distributions are from verbal autopsies
CSMF cause-specific mortality fraction, EAVA expert algorithm verbal autopsy, PCVA physician-coded verbal autopsy
*Population causes estimated by substituting observed causes from facility deaths for community deaths
**Population causes estimated by predicting community causes with multinomial logistic regression of facility deaths based on age at death, mother’s education, and receiving any ANC (only for neonates, yes/no)
***Population causes estimated with random forest, using same predictors as multinomial projection B, plus birthplace

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ISSN: 1741-7015

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