Fig. 2

Model projections for incidence impact in SEAR, under adoption of WHO guidelines for management of LTBI in the region. See Table 1 for impact by country, as well as in terms of incidence and mortality. Shaded intervals show 95% Bayesian credible intervals. As described in the main text, the ‘status quo comparator represents current TB services continuing indefinitely without change, while the ‘Improved cascade’ comparator incorporates background improvements in TB care, including comprehensive engagement with the private healthcare sector, and intensified case-finding, throughout the region