Table 1 Impact on TB incidence and mortality, by country and for the whole region, by 2030 relative to 2015. Estimates show the incremental impact attributable to preventive therapy alone, in the context of each comparator. Thus estimates under the ‘status quo’ comparator reflect the difference between the blue and orange curves in the left-hand panel of Fig. 2 and estimates under the ‘improved TB cascade’ comparator reflect the difference between the green and yellow curves in the right-hand panel of Fig. 2

4.84 [4.33–8.14]

3.70 [1.62–7.79]

4.45 [3.79–5.60]

1.70 [0.57–4.21]

3.23 [2.76–6.58]

3.02 [0.99–7.79]

5.25 [2.66–4.25]

1.67 [0.43–4.63]

15.90 [4.94–30.42]

15.60 [3.87–40.46]

8.79[−2.01–14.89]

4.80[− 1.08–14.94]

6.94 [5.04–10.64]

6.69 [4.56–9.47]

6.44 [5.08–8.33]

3.59 [2.48–6.07]

9.79 [7.23–14.13]

6.61 [4.83–8.50]

7.81 [6.52–10.05]

3.19 [2.41–4.60]

3.45 [1.90–16.50]

0.14 [0.10–0.44]

1.97 [1.45–2.89]

0.07 [0.06–0.09]

10.59 [8.07–23.98]

8.25 [4.40–18.63]

12.41 [9.02–23.00]

6.02 [2.81–11.26]

6.17 [4.56–13.68]

8.80 [3.34–23.87]

5.22 [4.12–7.78]

4.71 [1.17–13.02]

2.01 [1.58–3.00]

1.27 [0.64–3.39]

2.15 [1.68–2.83]

1.06 [0.38–2.29]

13.94 [7.96–36.96]

7.25 [3.17–19.43]

9.06 [6.47–15.52]

3.03 [1.23–7.89]

49.4 [28.74–84.77]

39.18 [16.70–92.83]

22.39 [12.56–40.23]

9.47 [2.75–30.10]

8.30 [6.48–10.83]

6.75 [5.19–8.54]

6.93 [5.81–8.51]

3.52 [2.72–5.08]