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Table 1 Death risk by COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, 2020 (as of February 12, 2020)

From: Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January–February, 2020

Death risk Latest estimate Range of median estimates
Crude CFR (observed) 4.06% 2.0–9.0%
Crude CFR (estimated) 4.3% (95% CrI 3.9–5.0%) 3.4–7.1%
Time–delay-adjusted CFR 12.2% (95% CrI 11.4–13.1%) 4.0–34.5%
Crud IFR 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03–0.06%) 0.02–0.07%
Time–delay adjusted IFR 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08–0.17%) 0.03–0.33%
  1. CrI credibility intervals, CFR case fatality ratio, IFR infection fatality ratio
  2. Upper and lower 95% credibility interval