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Table 1 Death risk by COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, 2020 (as of February 12, 2020)

From: Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January–February, 2020

Death risk

Latest estimate

Range of median estimates

Crude CFR (observed)

4.06%

2.0–9.0%

Crude CFR (estimated)

4.3% (95% CrI‡ 3.9–5.0%)

3.4–7.1%

Time–delay-adjusted CFR

12.2% (95% CrI 11.4–13.1%)

4.0–34.5%

Crud IFR

0.04% (95% CrI 0.03–0.06%)

0.02–0.07%

Time–delay adjusted IFR

0.12% (95% CrI 0.08–0.17%)

0.03–0.33%

  1. CrI credibility intervals, CFR case fatality ratio, IFR infection fatality ratio
  2. ‡Upper and lower 95% credibility interval
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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